Burundian African Union Mission in Somalia peacekeepers standing in formation during a ceremony as they prepare to leave the Jaale Siad Military academy after being replaced by the Somali military in Mogadishu. — Reuters
SOMALIA’s government is seeking to slow the withdrawal of African peacekeepers and warning of a potential security vacuum, with neighbouring countries fretting that resurgent Shabaab militants could seize power.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), a peacekeeping force, is committed to withdrawing by Dec 31, when a smaller new force is expected to replace it.
However, in a letter in May to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council the government asked to delay until September the withdrawal of half the 4,000 troops who were due to leave by the end of June.
The government had previously recommended, in a joint assessment with the AU in March, that the overall withdrawal timeline be adjusted “based on the actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces.
The assessment, which was mandated by the UN Security Council, warned that a “hasty drawdown of Atmis personnel will contribute to a security vacuum”.
“I’ve never been more concerned about the direction of my home country,” said Mursal Khalif, an independent member of the defence committee in parliament.
The European Union and United States, the top funders of the AU force in Somalia, have sought to reduce the peacekeeping operation due to concerns about long-term financing and sustainability, four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official said.
Negotiations about a new force have proven complicated, with the AU initially pushing for a more robust mandate than Somalia wanted, three of the diplomatic sources said. A heated political dispute could lead Ethiopia to pull out some of the most battle-hardened troops.
Somalia’s presidency and prime minister’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
The country’s national security adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali said the request to delay the withdrawal was meant to align the drawdown with planning for the post-Atmis mission.
“The notion that there is a ‘fear of al Shabaab resurgence’ is dramatised,” he said.
Mohamed El-Amine Souef, AU special representative to Somalia and head of Atmis, said there was no definitive timeline for concluding negotiations but that all parties were committed to an agreement that helps achieve sustainable peace and security.
“The AU and Somalia’s government have emphasised the importance of a conditions-based drawdown to prevent any security vacuum,” he said.
As the drawdown proceeds, with 5,000 of around 18,500 troops leaving last year, the government has projected confidence. It has said the new force should not exceed 10,000 and should be limited to tasks like securing major population centres.
The call for a smaller force likely reflects views of nationalists who oppose a heavy foreign presence in Somalia, said Rashid Abdi, an analyst with Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think-tank focused on the Horn of Africa.
Uganda and Kenya, which contributed troops to the departing mission, are also worried.
Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda’s state minister of foreign affairs, said that despite intensive training efforts, Somali troops could not sustain a long-term military confrontation.
“We do not want to get into a situation where we are fleeing, the kind of thing that we saw in Afghanistan,” he said.
Oryem said Kenya accepted the drawdown requested by the US and EU but the concerns of countries with forces in Somalia should be heard.
Kenyan President William Ruto told reporters during his visit to the US in May that a withdrawal that did not account for conditions on the ground would mean “the terrorists will take over Somalia”.
In response to questions, an EU spokesman said it was focused on building domestic security capacities and supported in principle a Somali government proposal for a new mission that would have a reduced size and scope.
A US State Department spokesman said the force should be large enough to prevent a security vacuum.
Washington has supported all requests submitted by the AU to the UN Security Council to modify the drawdown timeline, the spokesman added.
Two years ago, an army offensive in central Somalia initially seized large swathes of territory from al Shabaab.
Last August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared his intention to “eliminate” the powerful al-Qaeda offshoot within five months.
But just a few days later, al Shabaab counter-attacked, retaking the town of Cowsweyne. They killed scores of soldiers and beheaded several civilians accused of supporting the army.
“This broke the hearts of Somalis but gave courage to al Shabaab,” Ahmed Abdulle, a militiaman from a clan in central Somalia, said.
The Somali government has never publicly provided a death toll for the Cowsweyne battle and didn’t respond to a request for a toll for this story.
“There were enough troops in Cowsweyne, over a battalion, but they were not organised well,” said a soldier named Issa, who fought in the battle there.
Issa said car bombs had blasted through the gates of Cowsweyne army camp on the day of the attack, citing a shortage of defensive outposts to protect bases from such attacks.
Soldiers, militiamen from local clans and residents in areas targeted by the military campaign have reported no army operations in the past two months following additional battlefield setbacks.
The extent of the territorial losses to al Shabaab could not be independently established, though Sheikh-Ali said on X that the army had held most of its gains.
The peacekeepers’ withdrawal could make it more difficult to hold territory. While analysts estimate Somalia’s army at around 32,000 soldiers, the government acknowledged, in the assessment with the AU, a shortage of some 11,000 trained personnel due to “high operational tempo” and “attrition”.
The government has said its soldiers are capable of confronting Shabaab with limited external support.
The United States has about 450 troops in Somalia to train and advise local forces, and conducts regular drone attacks against suspected militants.
Somalia’s security has been underwritten by foreign resources since Ethiopia invaded in 2006, toppling the administration but galvanising an insurgency that has since killed tens of thousands of people.
The US has spent more than US$2.5bil on counterterrorism assistance since 2007, according to a study last year by Brown University. That number does not include undisclosed military and intelligence spending on activities like drone strikes and deployments of American ground troops.
The EU says it has provided about US$2.8bil to Atmis and its predecessor since 2007. Turkey, Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries also provide security assistance.
But resources are under strain. The EU, which pays for most of Atmis’s roughly US$100mil annual budget, is shifting toward bilateral support with an eye toward reducing its overall contributions in the medium-term, diplomatic sources said.
Some European countries would like to see the new mission financed through assessed contributions of UN member states.
Financing for the new mission can only be formally addressed once Somalia and the AU agree on a proposed size and mandate. — Reuters
