Maduro speaking at a rally in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. — ©2024 The New York Times Company
VENEZUELA’s authoritarian president, Nicolas Maduro, faces a watershed moment that will determine the fate of his rule and the course of his troubled country.
On July 28, the leader of the nation that holds the world’s largest oil reserves – and yet has seen millions of residents flee amid a crushing economic crisis – will confront his toughest electoral challenge since taking office in 2013.
Polls show that his main opponent, a low-key former diplomat named Edmundo Gonzalez, is far ahead.
Gonzalez is backed by a fiery opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, who has captivated voters as she criss-crosses the country, campaigning for him on a promise to re-establish democracy and reunite families separated by migration.
On the other side is Maduro, a skilled political operator who for years has overcome his unpopularity by tilting the ballot box in his favour. He could use the same tactics to eke out another victory.
Yet, there is a wild card: he could also lose, negotiate a peaceful exit and hand over power.
Few Venezuelans expect him to do that.
Instead, political analysts, election experts, opposition figures and four former senior officials in Maduro’s government interviewed by The New York Times believe, based on his past record, that he is probably mulling multiple options to retain power.
Maduro’s government could disqualify Gonzalez, or the parties he represents, they say, removing his only serious challenger from the race.
Maduro could allow the vote to go forward, but draw on years of experience of manipulating elections in his favour to suppress participation, confuse voters and ultimately win.
But he could also cancel or postpone the vote, inventing a crisis – a simmering border dispute with neighbouring Guyana is one option – as an excuse.
Leaders of the opposition, Gonzalez and Machado (both in white) at a campaign rally in La Victoria, Venezuela. — ©2024 The New York Times Company
Finally, he could simply fix the vote tally, analysts and political figures say.
That happened in 2017, when the country held a vote to select a new political body to rewrite the constitution. The company that provided voting technology, Smartmatic, concluded that the result had “without any doubt” been manipulated – and that Maduro’s government reported at least one million more votes than had actually been cast. (Smartmatic cut ties with the country.)
Zair Mundaray, a former prosecutor in the Maduro government who defected in 2017, said the country had arrived at a critical moment. Even Maduro’s followers, he added, “are clear that he is in the minority”.
Whatever Maduro does, the election will be closely watched by the US government, which has long sought to push him from power, saying it wants to promote democracy in the region, but also looking for a friendly partner in the oil business.
In recent months, the Biden administration’s desire to improve economic conditions inside Venezuela has intensified, as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have headed north, creating an enormous political challenge for President Joe Biden before his own re-election bid.
Maduro has made it clear he has no intention of losing the election, accusing his opponents of plotting a “coup” against him and telling a crowd of followers at a campaign event that “we are going to win by a knockout!” When that happens, he said, his opponents will surely call it fraud.
Representatives of the country’s communications ministry and election council did not respond to requests for comment.
Maduro, 61, rose to power following the death of Hugo Chavez, the charismatic founder of Venezuela’s socialist project.
Already, the government is trying to massage the vote in the president’s favour.
The millions of Venezuelans who have fled to other countries – many of whom would probably cast ballots against him – have faced enormous barriers to register to vote.
Election experts and opposition activists say that 3.5 million to 5.5 million Venezuelans eligible to vote now live outside the country – up to a quarter of the total electorate of 21 million people. But just 69,000 Venezuelans abroad have been able to register to vote.
The watchdog groups say denying such a large number of citizens the right to cast a ballot constitutes extensive electoral fraud.
Efforts to undermine the vote are also unfolding inside the country.
The Venezuela education ministry said in April that it is changing the names of more than 6,000 schools, which are common voting sites, possibly complicating efforts by voters to find their assigned polling places.
“This is not about a man, but about a project,” Giovanny Erazo, 42, said at a recent get-out-the-vote event.
Perhaps Maduro’s biggest electoral machination will be to use his control of the courts to bar the country’s most popular opposition figure, Machado, from running in the first place. But she has still mobilised her popularity to take to the campaign trail with Gonzalez.
Maduro’s government, according to the opposition, has targeted the campaign – 37 opposition activists have been detained or gone into hiding to avoid detention since January, according to Gonzalez.
Maduro has raised salaries for public workers, announced new infrastructure projects and ramped up his social media presence. The economy has improved slightly.
His persistent argument is that US sanctions are at the heart of Venezuela’s economic problems. The country’s socialist movement, despite the economic travails, still runs deep.
Even if Maduro were to sabotage the vote, it is unclear that it would lead to the kind of unrest that could push him from office.
At least 270 people have been killed in protests since 2013, according to the human rights organisation Provea, leaving many fearful of taking to the streets. Many frustrated with Maduro have already voted with their feet by fleeing the country. — ©2024 The New York Times Company
