The writer shaking hands with his supporters at the Move Forward Party headquarters in Bangkok. — AP
IN Thailand, politics often prove stranger than fiction. Having won the majority of seats in last year’s general elections, my party and I found ourselves entangled in legal battles rather than governing as mandated by 14 million voters.
The Thai elite, through their institutionalised counter-majoritarian mechanisms, have accused us of attempting to overthrow the state. This sweeping charge stems from our proposal to amend Thailand’s lèse-majesté law, hoping to prevent its exploitation as a tool to silence political opponents and instil fear in critics.
Yet, while a cursory glance suggests Thai democracy faces a grievous threat, hampering our constituents’ aspirations for a better country, a closer inspection offers glimmers of hope.
Firstly, Thai citizens are increasingly recognising that political uncertainty breeds economic stagnation, with judicial overreach as the likely culprit. This realisation was not as prevalent before the current round of instability.
Once one of Asia’s tigers with an economy dubbed “Teflon,” Thailand’s political problems did not significantly affect its economic attractiveness. However, those days are long gone, with Thailand being the worst performer among Asean’s six largest economies in the first quarter of 2024.
Public disagreements between the embattled Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Thailand over interest rates have dampened economic confidence. Thailand’s growth engines, led by tourism and private consumption, are sluggish; agricultural and industrial production and exports are contracting, while household and corporate debts continue to rise.
Our economic problems are structural, attributable to a loss of competitiveness in human capital and a failure to transition from manufacturing to digital technology.
Amid economic hardship, average Thai voters have also been robbed of their political choice through hyper-legalism, while the government faces legal hurdles that leave their fate in limbo. The silver lining is that people are increasingly equating their economic plight with political underhandedness, and rightly so.
Secondly, pressure is now mounting on the ultra-conservatives who have maintained tight control over political and economic life, through largely undemocratic means, and demands for accountability from the powers-that-be are growing. The pattern of party dissolutions has persisted for two decades, with our predecessor, the Future Forward Party, being the latest casualty in 2020. The attempt to dissolve the Move Forward Party is thus not an isolated power play.
These consistent and devious efforts by undemocratic elites to maintain power show they are unable to earn it through people’s trust and confidence. Each time, the cost of resorting to political shenanigans to retain power becomes higher. Thai citizens are fed up with the old tricks, but they might not manifest their anger through street battles. Instead, it will be through the ballot boxes. They realise that change via parliament might take longer, but once achieved, it is more enduring. Such a phenomenon is a cause for celebration for all advocates of democracy.
Thirdly, reasonable conservatives are shifting towards a more progressive stance.
Elements in the military and the courts are showing eagerness for reform. The military is more transparent in defending its budget allocation against parliamentary representatives. Their reform plans, if implemented, are not significantly different from what my Party envisages.
The up-and-coming generation of judges have voiced their disappointment with stretching legal interpretations for political ends at the expense of the rule of law. This convergence, coupled with the urge for change at all echelons of Thai society, augurs well for our democratic development.
Fourthly, citizens have been politically awakened and feel more empowered than ever. Average voters, including the Precariat as a political class, have been instrumental in pushing for change. Nicknamed the “land of compromises,” Thailand desperately needs a new political consensus. Past compromises – including sacrificing indigenous people’s land rights to appease real estate conglomerates, allowing corporate greed to turn Thailand into one of the world’s most unequal countries – no longer have a place in Thai politics. The result of last year’s elections, where politicians with autocratic tendencies suffered heavy losses, stands as testament to this fact.
The national political discourse has become more progressive, even without us at the helm of the government. Legislation on the rights of ethnic and indigenous groups and labour rights and welfare have passed their first readings. These bills aim to cultivate a society that respects and protects ethnic and indigenous rights while furthering workers’ rights, including longer parental leave.
Even regarding Myanmar-related policy, our constituents have pushed us to do more through our legislative authority. Thai citizens’ uncompromising advocacy for their own rights and those of individuals seeking refuge in our country enabled us to turn their collective will into tangible progress. I remain hopeful for my country, regardless of this month’s political developments.
At face value, Thailand will fall significantly short on the democratic scale when the MFP’s dissolution and political bans come to pass. Any political ploy that disenfranchises and alienates a large number of citizens will come at a steep price, given the political awakening that now reverberates through the country.
These catalysts of change offer a glimmer of hope for Thai democracy, even when prospects remain bleak. Thais’ wishes to live secure lives, free from fear and want, will not be determined by a court verdict. — The Nation/Asia News Network
Pita Limjaroenrat was the leader and PM candidate of the Move Forward Party in the recent Thai general elections. This opinion piece was published before the Constitutional Court ruled for the dissolution of the party and banned its leaders from politics for 10 years. On Friday, Move Forward Party leaders announced their switch to the third iteration of the party called the People’s Party, led by by 37-year-old tech whiz Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.
