A man fishing along a river in Hunchun, China, with mountains in North Korea visible in the background. Beijing’s leaders are working with regional neighbours on the country’s western, northern and southern borders to develop new rail and sea links. — ©2024 The New York Times Company
CHINA is intensifying its efforts to become Asia’s trade and transport hub through a series of ambitious projects, despite facing significant challenges.
In recent months, Beijing has pushed several infrastructure initiatives – to the west, it plans a rail line across Central Asia; while three more lines are set for construction from China’s southeastern border into Vietnam; and it is also negotiating with Russia and North Korea to reopen a long-closed port on the Sea of Japan.
These projects are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched 11 years ago, aimed at reshaping global trade networks to centre on China.
However, the initiatives face numerous hurdles, including the need for cooperation from countries with unstable political environments like Kyrgyzstan and North Korea, and concerns from neighbouring nations like Vietnam, which remains cautious of China’s influence.
A key factor in China’s growing regional clout is its relationship with Russia.
Russia’s dependence on China for supplies in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine has tilted the power dynamic.
While the two nations have conducted joint military exercises and deepened ties, Russia’s ongoing war has also triggered a labour shortage, particularly impacting Central Asia.
China’s expanding reach
One of China’s most significant projects is a rail line that will stretch from Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang region through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan.
China holds a majority stake in the project, with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan sharing the rest.
However, the construction has been delayed due to a lack of skilled workers in Kyrgyzstan, many of whom have migrated to Russia for work.
“The problem is not just having enough engineers and workers, but enough with the right technical training and background to stay and work in Kyrgyzstan,” said Niva Yau, a specialist on Central Asia.
If completed, the rail line will open new trade routes for China, giving it access to Afghanistan’s valuable mineral reserves and allowing easier transport of Chinese goods to Iran in exchange for oil.
Iran, facing sanctions over its nuclear programme, sells its oil to China at a discounted rate, which has solidified its position as China’s primary oil supplier.
Vietnam: A new frontier
To the southeast, China is planning three rail lines connecting its border to Vietnam, a nation that has become a major manufacturing hub.
Due to trade restrictions against China, companies have shifted production to Vietnam, but much of the raw materials and components still come from China. Closer transport links would enhance trade between the two nations.
However, China’s involvement in these rail projects is expected to remain minimal, focused primarily on planning and advisory roles.
The strategic Tumen River
Perhaps the most complex of China’s ambitions is securing access to the Sea of Japan.
The Tumen River, which marks the border between China and North Korea, is blocked by a low bridge built by the Soviet Union during the Korean War.
Replacing it with a higher structure to allow larger ships to pass has been a long-standing dream for Chinese leaders. Doing so would provide China with a vital trade link to the Pacific, with potential routes extending as far as Europe.
While Russia has shown a willingness to cooperate, the real challenge lies in persuading North Korea.
The isolated nation has often played Russia and China against each other to maintain its leverage.
Some experts, like Hoo Chiew Ping, a Korea specialist at the East Asian International Relations Caucus in Malaysia, believe that even if China and Russia reach an agreement, North Korea may resist the plan to protect its interests.
“Even if China and Russia reach an agreement, they still have to persuade North Korea,” Hoo said.
Reopening the Tumen River would link the Pacific Ocean with a port in Hunchun, an otherwise landlocked Chinese city a few kilometres up the river.
Some residents of Hunchun, like Zhao Hongwei, a real estate investor, welcome the plan.
“If there is a port, there can be trade, and we can become prosperous,” Zhao, 49, said.
The potential economic gains for China from reopening the river would be substantial, but North Korea’s unpredictability continues to complicate the project. — ©2024 The New York Times Company
