A military recruiting billboard in Kursk, Russia. — Photos: ©2024 The New York Times Company
WHAT the Kremlin wants from Russians now boils down to two things: men should join the army, and women should have more children.
In recent months, the Russian government has doubled sign-up bonuses for soldiers and launched a massive recruitment drive across the media and streets. A new law even allows criminal suspects to avoid trial by enlisting to fight.
Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has made increasing the birth rate a national priority, with measures that would ban advocacy for a child-free lifestyle.
The two campaigns reflect the Kremlin’s desperate bid to reshape Russia in order to win its war in Ukraine and sustain the country in the future.
Putin’s army is suffering an estimated 1,000 casualties daily, and his government needs soldiers in the short term.
In the long term, Russia needs more people to support a faltering economy and maintain its military capacity.
Analysts say the goal of expanding the military to 1.5 million troops is unrealistic due to Russia’s shrinking population, but Putin is pushing ahead.
In September, Putin ordered the military ranks to increase by 180,000, citing threats from the West.
But as military expert Dara Massicot from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes, the challenge lies not only in recruiting soldiers but also in having a large enough workforce to produce the weapons they need.
Children from the Young Army Cadets National Movement during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.
At the same time, Putin is trying to boost Russia’s population, calling for larger families and harking back to a time when it was “fashionable” to have seven, nine, or even 10 children.
Russia’s demographic decline is a legacy of the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union, which caused birth rates to plummet.
In 2022, Russia’s fertility rate was 1.41, below Putin’s target of 1.6 by 2030 and well below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.
Government incentives now offer Russian women about US$6,700 (RM28,800) for having their first child, and more than US$60bil is earmarked for spending on family support over the next three years.
However, the number of children born in Russia has hit a 25-year low, and the country’s population has declined by 1.8 million since 2020.
While many countries facing declining birth rates offer similar incentives, Russia has linked its efforts directly to the ongoing conflict with the West.
Some officials have called for a “special demographic operation”, mirroring the euphemism for the Ukraine war.
Valentina Matviyenko, one of the most powerful women in Russia’s government, has criticised Western feminism for undermining traditional values, while a new bill aims to ban propaganda against having children, with fines as high as US$50,000 (RM215,000).
As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, the Kremlin has managed to replace its casualties with new recruits, while Ukraine’s forces have struggled against Russia’s superior numbers.
Though the most eager volunteers have already gone off to fight, the Kremlin is still avoiding a forced mobilisation like the one last year, which sparked an exodus of young men.
Instead, it has sweetened the deal: in July, Putin doubled sign-up bonuses to more than US$4,500 (RM19,300), nearly half the average Russian’s annual salary, while Moscow offers an additional US$20,000 (RM86,000) to soldiers.
Ultimately, Putin sees population size as key to his geopolitics, both in the war with Ukraine and in maintaining Russia’s global standing.
But with fewer women of childbearing age and an increasingly isolated economy, achieving both his military and demographic goals will be an uphill battle. — ©2024 The New York Times Company
