Irreconcilable differences?: The political rift between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (right) and his vice president Sara Duterte has only grown in 2024. — AP
THERE are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” observed Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin following the precipitous decline and eventual collapse of the centuries-old Tsarist regime in his country in 1917. The question of “revolution”, of course, has gained renewed salience in our new political moment.
From the sudden demise of the half-a-century-old Assad regime in Syria, to the historic impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol in South Korea, and the seamless return of Donald Trump to the US White House, we are witnessing nothing less than the evisceration of age-old assumptions and the dawn of a new age of uncertainty.
Both the world’s most established democracies as well as entrenched autocracies, including both Russia and China, are experiencing an unprecedented degree of systemic vulnerability.
So, dear reader, where does that leave the Philippines?
It’s easy to dismiss our domestic politics as more “noise” than “signal”, namely more drama than substance. We had a surreal year behind us.
Where else on Earth has a former president openly accused his immediate successor (and ostensible ally) as a “drug addict” and, shortly after, called for the separation of a whole group of provinces from the rest of the nation?
Where else in this universe has an incumbent vice-president threatened, not once but twice, to have the commander-in-chief murdered, whether through assassination or beheading?
In any other self-respecting nation, a swift and decisive response to such grave threats to the republic would have been a foregone conclusion. Unfortunately, the Philippines is a peculiar system, where the rule of law is, at best, an aspiration, and at worst, a perilous delusion.
Following months of blockbuster “hearings” at the Philippine legislature, which meticulously examined a gallery of rogues and exposed a torrent of questionable practices under the family of former president Rodrigo Duterte, genuine accountability remains a big question mark.
Are enough senators willing to risk their electoral future to hold a powerful dynasty to account? Are domestic courts sufficiently secure and insulated to take on some of the most popular figures in the country? Will we finally cooperate with the International Criminal Court to hold former administration stalwarts accountable for mass atrocities?
Meanwhile, the Filipino public – reeling from high food inflation and slowing wage growth – is also coming to terms with a whole host of highly questionable developments during the recent budget hearings at the Philippine legislature.
The prevailing opinion among a growing number of folks in the country is that politicos are scrambling for discretionary funds ahead of next year’s elections at the expense of desperately needed long-term investments in our key institutions, including healthcare, education, and defence.
Philippine politics is a classic case of an “unstable equilibrium”. It may seem like beautiful chaos on the surface, but it’s also increasingly unsustainable, and accordingly, susceptible to radical transformation. In many ways, this was the inevitable conclusion I derived from an illuminating conversation with two of the most informed political figures in the country.
One of our discussions involved assessing the long-term prospects for Philippine democracy. With a few dynasties still dominating our elected offices and even oligarchs gobbling up much of the recently created growth, is the status quo both morally and politically sustainable?
A narrow elite has seemingly hijacked both elected offices and the commanding heights of our economy.
We will soon face a crossroads, where the options are either radical reforms within the bounds of our Constitution or a complete rupture, which may pave the way for the emergence of a “revolutionary” government on the ashes of a totally discredited system.
After decades of political stagnation, the Philippines could be finally ripe for transformative changes. — Philippine Daily Inquirer/Asia News Network
