Buddies, maybe: Trump with Xi during a bilateral meeting at the Mar-a-Lago estate in 2017. A rekindled bromance between the two could create the right environment for an improvement in ties between the two superpowers. — AFP
XI Jinping and Donald Trump’s bromance could be rekindled in 2025, if both sides play their cards right. This is positive and would help create the right environment for an improvement in ties between the two superpowers, but timing and tone are everything. The economic rivals will need to give and take to prevent the relationship from getting worse.
There are potential signs of a rapprochement. It was a smart move by the US president-elect to invite Xi to his inauguration in January (the Chinese leader reportedly turned it down), but future attempts need to be more than just empty gestures to make a real difference.
A face-to-face meeting, sooner rather than later, is essential to set the tone of the bilateral relationship over the next four years. The alternative is continued misunderstanding, which in the worst-case scenario, could lead to actual conflict.
There is precedence for this. During Trump’s first term, he regularly talked up his warm ties with Xi, going so far as to say the two leaders “love each other”. Still, that didn’t stop the then-US president from imposing harsh trade tariffs on Beijing, the start of a prominent shift in US-China relations that solidified during Joe Biden’s administration.
Next year looks set to be another challenging one for Xi. China is facing a continued loss of investor confidence, a deepening real estate crisis, ballooning local government debt, a volatile stock market, deflationary pressures, and increasing popular discontent. Improving relations with the US could go a long way towards lifting sentiment at home.
In order to do that, Xi will have to find some common ground with Trump. That won’t be easy. During his campaign, Trump floated revoking Beijing’s most- favoured-nation status. He also said he would slap tariffs of as much as 60% on all imports from China. Bloomberg Economics says this would manifest itself in three waves of tariff hikes, starting in summer 2025, with levies on China ultimately tripling by the end of 2026. Further analysis indicates China could say goodbye to 83% of its sales to the US, a huge pressure on exports which are already suffering.
A Trump presidency is forcing China out of its economic policy inertia. Last week’s annual economic work conference made “boosting consumption” its top priority, with the readout calling for specific measures such as increasing government-sponsored pension and medical insurance payments.
The president-elect is using tariffs as leverage. He has a potential Cabinet lined up with China hawks who could revive hardline trade policies.
The Chinese leader is well aware of the impending threats, so he has been making an effort. After Trump’s election, he reached out with a congratulatory message stating that “both China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation”. But this relationship has to work on Beijing’s terms, too.
It is clear what Xi’s boundaries are. During last month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting with Biden, he emphasised the “four red lines” that Washington should not cross: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, the Chinese political system, and Beijing’s right to development. The declaration was a clear warning to the Trump administration that breaching them could further heighten tensions.
Some form of formal communication channels should be established before any further tariffs are imposed by Washing-ton, to prevent a cycle of retaliation from Beijing. If that doesn’t happen, it will take months or even longer to get both sides talking again. There is a potential template that currently exists for talks: The strategic channel between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi that has helped stabilise relations since 2022.
There have been rare moments of coming together. Most recently, the countries signed an agreement extending bilateral government-to-government scientific cooperation for another five years. It allows for science and tech cooperation but minimises the risk to national security, and keeps the development of critical and emerging technologies off limits to Beijing.
On China’s side, rebuilding relations will depend on its perception of Trump’s new national security team and whether there will be any room to create back channels for future negotiations. The new Washington administration could adopt a more transactional approach that could leave Taiwan’s security as a bargaining chip. Last week’s naval exercises around the Taiwan Strait were among Beijing’s largest in 30 years, according to Taiwanese officials, a reminder that China sees the self-ruled island as its own, and it wants the US to stay out of its way.
The most we can hope for is a renewed cordiality between Trump and Xi. The nature of the US-China relationship will be defined by strategic competition. Preventing further deterioration is crucial. — Bloomberg
