Vendors preparing to rebuild their stalls at a market area in Lashio, Myanmar’s northern Shan state. — AFP
WHEN an alliance led by three rebel armies seized swathes of Myanmar territory near the Chinese border in October last year, Beijing turned a blind eye.
A year on, the rebels have ground down the junta, pushing the military from key borderlands and advancing toward Myanmar’s heartland.
In response, China has sealed its border and halted vital imports, aiming to dissuade the rebels from moving further south, particularly towards Mandalay.
Initially, Beijing saw the Three Brotherhood Alliance as a tool to combat rampant border crime ignored by the junta. However, the alliance’s success and the military’s rapid collapse have alarmed Chinese officials, who view the junta as a stabilising force.
Two analysts tracking Myanmar-China relations suggest that Beijing fears the destabilisation of its 2,000km border, threatening Chinese investments and trade.
Critical turning point
The conflict reached a turning point in August when the alliance captured Lashio, a strategic town of 130,000. It was the first seizure of a regional military command in Myanmar’s history and took the rebels by surprise with its speed.
“It fell twice as quickly as we expected,” said Ni Ni Kyaw, secretary of a communist resistance group supporting Operation 1027, the alliance’s offensive.
The junta, referring to the rebels as “armed terrorists”, insists it cooperates with Beijing to maintain border stability. China’s foreign ministry reiterates its opposition to chaos and urges all parties to seek a peaceful resolution.
However, Beijing’s subtle pressure on the alliance is evident. Border closures have starved rebel-held territories of critical supplies, including children’s vaccines, straining an already fragile public health system.
According to Maung Saungkha, a leader of another supporting group, arms and ammunition are also in short supply, forcing rebels to seize resources from defeated junta troops.
Calculated moves
Despite their early backing of the alliance, Chinese officials now aim to prevent further destabilisation. An assault on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, is a red line.
“It’s equivalent to Shanghai in importance,” explains Zhu Jiangming, a Chinese security expert.
The fall of Mandalay would mark a dramatic escalation, one Beijing is determined to avoid.
In mid-August, shortly after Lashio’s fall, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi met junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, emphasising the need for stability and safeguarding Chinese interests. Pressure on the alliance followed, including tightened border controls that curtailed the flow of arms and medical supplies.
Facing this squeeze, the MNDAA – the ethnic Chinese faction within the alliance – declared it would halt further territorial advances and was open to a ceasefire under Chinese guidance.
However, not all rebel factions share this stance.
Some see China’s role in peace negotiations as a strategy to divide and weaken anti-junta forces.
The National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s shadow government, remains sceptical. A senior NUG official, speaking anonymously, accused China of encouraging some groups to cease fighting and isolate the NUG.
Fragmented loyalties
China’s involvement has intensified internal tensions within the alliance.
Jason Tower, an analyst with the US Institute of Peace, argues that an assault on Mandalay without unified backing would be risky.
Yet, groups like the Mandalay People’s Defence Forces are prepared to take the lead.
“We must unite, prepare, and train to withstand China’s pressure,” insists their commander, Soe Thuya Zaw.
Junta’s fragile grip
China’s intervention reflects its alarm at the junta’s deteriorating control.
Since the 2021 coup, Min Aung Hlaing has frequently rotated regional commanders, a strategy analysts see as an attempt to consolidate power and prevent dissent.
According to Columbia University’s Security Force Monitor, there have been 49 commander changes since the coup – 36% more than in the preceding period.
This instability has weakened the military’s response, particularly in the critical border regions.
During the Lashio offensive, the junta’s high command lost communication with regional leaders.
Min Aung Hlaing’s decision to sack Lashio’s commander mid-battle for insubordination has exacerbated the chaos.
“You don’t change a commander during a crisis for insubordination alone,” explains analyst Min Zaw Oo, noting the replacement couldn’t even enter Lashio amid the fighting.
A delicate balance
China’s calculated moves underscore its delicate balancing act: preventing complete junta collapse while curbing the alliance’s advance.
The outcome could reshape Myanmar’s future and test Beijing’s regional influence.
For now, the rebels face a choice: maintain their momentum at the risk of losing Chinese support or capitulate to Beijing’s growing pressure. — Reuters
