ON Friday (Jan 6), Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said the political situation in Sabah was "calm".
Anwar was commenting on the talk that there was a move to oust Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor as chief minister.
It was the calm before the storm.
Hours later - at around 10 pm - Sabah Umno chief Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin whipped up a storm.
The Sabah Deputy Chief Minister announced that Umno, with 18 assemblymen, had quit the 27-month-old coalition government.
In the Land Below the Wind, the imperfect storm has hit the Hajiji government. His GRS/Barisan Nasional government has fallen.
Does Hajiji have the minimum 40 assemblymen in the 79-seat state assembly to remain in power?
Without Umno's 18, Hajiji officially only has the support of 29 GRS assemblymen (15 GRS direct members who quit Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, seven Parti Bersatu Sabah, six Sabah Star and one SAPP).
It is now a RM50 million question - who else supports Hajiji?
RM50 million is a Sabah inside joke among Sabahans referring to the Prime Minister's recent announcement that Sabah and Sarawak can approve projects worth RM50 million or below.
What is known as of press time as Sabah politics is stormy is the numbers for the Sulaman assemblyman are; GRS 29 + Pakatan Harapan (which is in the state opposition) seven + Umno (rebels) five + PAS one = 42 (a slim majority of two seats).
This would give the current Sabah government 42 seats, which is a slim majority of two seats.
Bung has admitted that at least five assemblymen have yet to support the move to quit the state government. He said Umno will take action against anyonenot toeing the party line.
There are Umno assemblymen committed to supporting Hajiji and they do not mind if the party sacks them. There is no anti-hop law in Sabah and they are free to join any party.
The other RM50 million question is will Pakatan form a coalition government with GRS? If it doesn't, then it is game over for Hajiji.
Does the double team of Bung and Parti Warisan president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal have the numbers to form the government?
Warisan 19 + Umno 13 + Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat three + one or two small parties with an assemblyman = about 37 (short of three assemblymen).
This grouping is three seats short, and Team Shafie/Bung needs around three assemblymen from the Umno rebels or Pakatan or PBS or Sabah Star or direct-GRS assemblymen to jump.
If the opposition managed to get the numbers, the RM50 million question is who will be its chief minister. Bung? Shafie?
If the chief minister wants state assembly's dissolution, will Sabah Yang Dipertua Negeri Tun Juhar Mahiruddin consent?
Will the days when Sabah had two CMs repeat itself?
Juhar sacked Barisan's Tan Sri Musa Aman, who was chief minister for two days after the 14th General Election in 2018, and replaced him with Shafie. Musa insisted in court that he had not quit as CM.
Can Hajii weather the political storm?
