PETALING JAYA: The corruption charges against former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin could prove to be a double-edged sword for the government, say political analysts.
If the prosecution manages to present a strong case against Muhyiddin and his fellow Bersatu leaders, it could strengthen the hand of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and reverse the “green wave” of the last general election.
On the other hand, if the prosecution fails to present a convincing case, Muhyiddin and other Bersatu leaders may be turned into “political martyrs”, which could lead to the downfall of the government.
Nevertheless, the analysts agree that the charges would put a dent in Perikatan Nasional’s “clean coalition” image and leave a stain that would be difficult to “wipe off” in the coming state elections.
Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said Bersatu, which claimed to have a clean image, would now cease to be seen as the alternative to Umno, which was the first party to be hit by a “court cluster”.
Still, he said, the reactions could be different.
“Some would cease to see Perikatan as the Bersih-Stabil (BeSt) alternative to Umno. Others, though, would see it as a witch-hunt or merely draw a cynical conclusion that all politicians are dirty.
“Muhyiddin might even come out as a martyr if convincing details don’t appear quickly in court or if Pakatan Harapan leaders push for the de-registration of Bersatu.
“They should also not bend over backwards to save Umno, Pakatan, or their politicians.
“This case (against Muhyiddin) alone is unlikely to cause immediate political chaos. There are not likely to be riots or violence, but the impact could be known after the state elections.”
The state elections are likely to be held sometime around August.
Meanwhile, Wong said, Perikatan would play up whatever ethno-religious issues it could find unless there could be a peace deal at least on non-judicial aspects like constituency funding.
“There is already a hoo-ha over a little-known indie movie called Mentega Terbang,” he said.
Wong also said Muhyiddin’s charging would not be the end of the Opposition.
“If Bersatu is destroyed, PAS will absorb much of its base, not Umno or Pakatan, and potentially become the strongest bloc by the 17th General Election.
“The best scenario for the unity government is to hold on to the three Pakatan states (Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan) and most Umno seats in the PAS states now that Perikatan cannot spend lavishly in the elections.”
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Dr Azmil Mohd Tayeb said the recent arrests of Bersatu leaders like Muhyiddin, former party information chief Datuk Wan Saiful Wan Jan and branch leader Adam Radlan Adam Muhammad could lead to the creation of martyrs and galvanise Perikatan’s base.
“However, it can also help the government when campaigning among the fence-sitters. It can say Perikatan is not as clean as it claims to be.
“Perikatan supporters are not likely to change their minds because of the arrests, which they see as selective prosecution. I think the prosecution will also fire up the Pakatan base as it will be seen as an attempt at reform,” said Azmil.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said the allegations against Bersatu leaders would not backfire on Anwar.
“The ones in Barisan Nasional who were for Muhyiddin will not dare say anything for now as the charges seem clear-cut as they involve alleged abuse of power and corruption during his term as prime minister.
“They would need to be careful not to be seen as defensive of Muhyiddin, as that would be seen as being anti-Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is now in jail for his role in the 1MDB scandal.
“The group in Barisan that was pro-Muhyiddin was also against Najib when he was charged.”
Asked if the Opposition would benefit from its claims of “political persecution”, Azmi said any such benefit would be “negligible” as Umno was still the king maker.
Umno, he said, would likely remain with Pakatan.
