PETALING JAYA: There is no need to panic about rice crops in Malaysia just yet, says a climatologist.
Instead, we should be more worried about transboundary haze at the end of the year when Indonesia starts burning its forests, said National Antarctica Research Centre’s Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah.
There may even be good news, with bumper harvests for durian, mangoes and palm oil.
Azizan said Malaysia is not on the major destruction path of El Nino, with only a weak El Nino affecting the southwest monsoon.
“At the moment, the El Nino is weak, so its influence on the current southwest monsoon is weak.
“Therefore, the normal southwest monsoon is expected, with afternoon thunderstorms.
“However, the El Nino influence on the northeast monsoon which usually occurs at the end of the year is expected to be stronger.
“At that time, the characteristics of the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (Enso) would be more pronounced and the weather will be drier.
“Our northeast monsoon which usually happens in December will be weaker with less rain.
“At that time, much will depend on how the waters are released from the dams to irrigate padi fields and if those dams can be replenished in time, given the lower rainfall.
“On the positive side, it may mean less year-end flooding,” said Azizan.
He acknowledged that an increase in temperature would increase heat stress on rice planting but it would all depend on how long after planting that it occurs.
“After seed formation, drier conditions are good as it would decrease the moisture content of rice,” he said.
As for irrigation, the matter would be more about the off-season irrigation and whether dams have enough water at the time.
“We should expect a weaker northeast monsoon with less rainfall as El Nino strengthens.
“In the east coast and Sabah and Sarawak, that is the main rainy season to replenish our dams.
“If the drought is bad, we will need to sacrifice our off-season rice crop as there will be no water in the padi fields.
“My main worry is the recurrence of transboundary haze due to forest clearance and peat forest fires both in Malaysia and from our neighbours.
“Even then, the northeast monsoon will start sometime in October and will blow the haze to the west, affecting Sri Lanka and not us,” said Azizan.
However, Azizan said the price of rice and wheat may go up if Australia suffers a bad drought when El Nino strengthens in December with higher temperatures.
“The good news is that, due to drier conditions as in the last El Nino of 2019, we can look forward to mass forest flowering. This means more food for wildlife and a bumper harvest for durian and harumanis mangoes.
“Also, look forward to extra bumper harvest for palm oil,” said Azizan.
