Photo: Bernama
A MERE eight months after the 15th General Election (GE15), Malaysians in six states are going to the ballot box again. Here are six reasons why the Aug 12 polls remain vital.
1. The surge or ebb of the Green Wave
During GE15, the “green wave" swept through Perlis with Perikatan Nasional taking all three parliamentary seats there, besides capturing 14 out of the 15 seats in Kedah. And it won all seats in its bastions of Kelantan and Terengganu.
Come Aug 12, will Perikatan make inroads in the Pakatan Harapan strongholds of Penang, Negri Sembilan and Selangor? In GE15, Fawwaz Md Jan of PAS defeated Nurul Izzah Anwar in her family’s legacy seat of Permatang Pauh in Penang. Is this an indication of things to come?
“In seats with over 70% Muslim voters, the ‘green wave’ will hit,” said Azmi Hasan of Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research.
Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, a political analyst from International Islamic University Malaysia, shared a similar view.
“From the looks of it, the wave is still strong in the Malay belt. It can also make its presence felt in Malay-majority seats in Penang and Selangor,” he said.
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2. Eyes on the new faces
During the Melaka polls in 2021 and the Johor election last year, Barisan took a gamble by having 70% of new faces in its candidate line-up.
This gamble paid off. Barisan won with two-thirds majority in both state polls.
This time, Azmi said political parties fielded many new faces, especially in Kedah.
“A majority of voters in Kedah are aged 40 and below. This group of voters is not tied to any political party and is easily swayed by social media campaigns.
“So I think new faces can connect very well with those below 40,” said Azmi.
He believes this is the right card to play.
3. Spotlight on Mentris Besar and Chief Minister
Pakatan is sticking with its incumbents Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun and Chow Kon Yeow as its Mentri Besar and Chief Minister candidates for Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang.
But its partner in the unity pact, Barisan Nasional, has yet to name its preferences.
Their rival Perikatan has also not revealed its choices. If it captures the prized Selangor, Datuk Seri Azmin Ali is speculated to be the MB.
Tunku Mohar believes there’s little chance of a change in Mentri Besars and Chief Minister, except perhaps for Kelantan and Penang. Watch out for upsets on Aug 12.
4. Voters’ whereabouts
The 2018 general election saw the largest voter turnout at 82.32%. And last year’s GE15 recorded a turnout of 73%.
Many observers believe some Malaysians are fatigued by the political instability that ensued after the collapse of the Pakatan government in 2020.
Azmi, though, senses an enthusiasm among voters but he forecasts that it will not surpass the turnout rate in 2018.
“Malaysians are still raring to vote, not because they are choosing the next state government, but they are voting as a referendum of their support on the unity government,” he said.
Dr Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said many voters would likely come out and vote due to the “green wave”.
“It would appear that an increasing majority of Malay voters are looking forward to a more religious outlook for the country, something they think PAS could usher in,” he said.
5. Ruling administrations under the microscope
Kelantan has been under PAS’ rule for decades, while Terengganu fell to the Islamist party in 2018. Barisan lost its grip on Penang and Selangor in 2008 and both states have remained under Pakatan since then.
Kedah is under Perikatan while Negri Sembilan is under Pakatan.
The consensus now is that while Perikatan may make inroads in the Pakatan-led states, it would not be sufficient to form the next government.
But as Tunku Mohar puts it: “Elections have become unpredictable now.”
6. Watch out for upsets
Any duel or battle cannot be written off.
Tunku Mohar pointed out that Kedah and Terengganu have gone through changes in government over the last decade.
“Some inroads by Pakatan-Barisan, and upsets in the two states cannot be ruled out,” he said.
Azmi, however, felt Perikatan’s attempt to wrest Selangor from Pakatan rule is unlikely to materialise.
“It is perceived that Hulu Kelang is a safer seat and that’s why Azmin is contesting there. But his chances in Hulu Kelang are not looking very good,” said Azmi.
Azmi also said Gerakan president Datuk Dominic Lau Hoe Chai is likely to lose in Bayan Lepas in his third electoral outing since 2013.
“This is because PAS grassroots have reportedly protested against Lau’s candidacy.
“PAS is very upset at not being allowed to contest. I guess PAS voters will abstain from voting. So, an upset against Lau could be happening in Bayan Lepas,” Azmi said.
