PETALING JAYA: A strong message of inclusivity, moderation and continued progressive development will be the key in stopping Perikatan Nasional’s “green wave” from reaching Penang’s Malay heartland, say political analysts.
Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar from International Islamic University Malaysia said Perikatan’s PAS would be relying on its 3P (PAS, padi, pondok) tag to gain traction in these Malay-majority seats.
“The 3Ps helped PAS win seats in Kedah and in mainland Penang in last year’s general election.
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“If the green wave spreads, it will polarise Penang. The Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional coalition will find it difficult to reach out to Malay voters to regain their support,” he said when contacted yesterday.
Tunku Mohar said this was because PAS would not find it difficult to convince its supporters with traditional (pondok) religious education in the rural (padi) areas to do their “religious duty” during the polls.
To counter this, he said the Pakatan-Barisan pact should not respond to PAS’ 3P or try to show that it was more Malay or Islamic.
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“It should promote the values of moderation and offer policies to ensure that all ethnic groups, including the Malays, will be treated with respect and their needs addressed by the unity government,” he added.
Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) senior lecturer Dr Azmil Mohd Tayeb said although the green wave was likely to be felt in Penang’s Malay rural heartland, Barisan was still quite entrenched in areas such as Kepala Batas, and could put up stiff competition.
To stem the spread of the green wave, he said the ruling coalition must address the narrow ethno-religious narrative presented by Perikatan and its allies.
“They (Pakatan-Barisan) need to assure voters that Penang will remain progressive and will be inclusive, based on sound people-centred economic policies.
“Although the green wave may hit Malay-majority areas, the damage in Penang will be limited,” he said.
Azmil said Pakatan-Barisan would retain Penang but likely with a reduced majority of 30 seats, with 10 going to Perikatan.
There are 11 Malay-majority state seats on Penang’s mainland – Penaga, Pinang Tunggal, Bertam, Permatang Berangan, Sungai Dua, Teluk Ayer Tawar, Seberang Jaya, Permatang Pasir, Penanti, Sungai Bakap and Sungai Acheh.
Universiti Malaya political scientist Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub suggested an even a more drastic measure that he believed could stop the green wave in Penang dead in its tracks.
“Pakatan should announce for the first time something it has never done, such as naming Zairil Khir Johari as the new chief minister candidate,” he said, referring to the DAP state executive councillor in charge of infrastructure and transport.
“If this can be done before polling day on Aug 12, I am certain the wave could be stopped not only in the Malay-majority areas, but also in non-Malay majority areas.”
USM political scientist Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the impact of non-Malay votes should not be overlooked either.
“We’ve been focusing a lot on Malay votes. However, if there is stiff competition which splits Malay votes, then non-Malays will become the kingmaker,” he said.
Prof Sivamurugan added that it was also crucial for Barisan to learn from the loss of parliamentary seats such as Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor to avoid the same mistakes in the state election.
“Barisan must avoid infighting or sabotage while getting its non-Malay supporters to come out in full force to vote,” he added.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said PAS would seek to cement its gains from GE15 last year by winning the Tasek Gelugor, Kepala Batas and Permatang Pauh state seats.
He said Pakatan-Barisan should use Kedah as model to show Malay voters in Penang that development would stagnate under PAS and that they would end up beholden to its leaders.
“It must be shown that it would not be a good situation if PAS takes over Penang.
“There must be some narrative to demonstrate that PAS is the dominant party in Perikatan and the chief minister candidate will be from PAS if they win,” he added.
