PETALING JAYA: No significant increase in turnout is expected for the six state elections this Saturday compared to the last general election, say pollsters.
Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research (Merdeka Centre) predicted it was going to be lower for all six states compared to the 15th General Election (GE15).
Merdeka Centre co-founder and programme director Ibrahim Suffian said there is a likelihood that out-of-state voters may not make the trip home this time.
Unlike in GE15, there is a view that returning to vote would not change anything, he said.
He pointed out that voter turnout between communities normally falls within a particular range.
“Even if the Malay turnout is higher, it is in proportion to the non-Malay turnout.
“We are not seeing any suppression of voting towards any particular community, so it is likely to be close to one another.
“Perikatan would not only need a very high turnout but also very high support among Malays to win the election in Selangor,” said Ibrahim.
He also said, according to data, PAS under Perikatan already enjoys the advantage of being the incumbent state government in Kedah.
“We think PAS has the upper hand (there) with or without turnout.
“The big difference is if they are able to wrest the mixed ethnic areas around Alor Setar or the southern part of the state around Kulim and Sg Petani,” said Ibrahim.
Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) chairman Datuk Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said its survey after nomination day on July 29 showed people were not really excited to come out to vote as compared to GE15.
“The mood of voters, in our experience, can only be gauged in the week leading up to the polls.
“From our survey, we found that in the state of Selangor, where the voters are mostly informed and connected via all kinds of media, the voter turnout may only be 79%, the same as in GE15.
“Even if there were an expected increase, it would be a mere 2% to 3%, nothing exponential.
“The worry, however, is if there is a decrease in voter turnout in the west coast states of Kedah, Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang.
“This, in turn, would affect all candidates from all coalitions,” said Redzuan.
He pointed out that in Selangor, there are not a large number of Malay voters who live out of state and would need to return home to vote, as is usually the case in the east coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu.
“In our survey, the indication is that those who are members of political parties would go out to vote as directed by their party leaders,” he said.
“The undecided members are those who are not members of any political parties and this is a big group among youths, with at least 80% of them not being members of any political party.”
Also, the campaigning by the coalitions during the six state polls would also contribute to whether the undecided would go out to vote.
“In GE15, Perikatan went on a very aggressive campaign, wooing voters, but this time around, if we look at the election paraphernalia, Perikatan is not as aggressive,” said Redzuan.
He agreed that this might also be due to financial constraints, as Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia of Perikatan had its funds frozen by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission.
Redzuan stated that candidates are able to respond quickly to attacks by their opponents, giving voters both sides of the story on any issue raised.
“Furthermore, we see that all three coalitions are very targeted this time, by gunning for winnable seats and not wasting time in places where they know they will not win anyway,” he said.
The fact that undecided voters are keeping their cards close to their chests by not attending ceramah, and coalitions concentrating more on face-to-face interactions with voters through walkabouts and house-to-house visits, paints a scenario of lower voter turnout or very much the same as GE15.
“In the rural areas, voters are quite sure who they will vote for,” said Redzuan. “It is in urban areas where the voters will only decide at the very last hour.”
More than 9.7 million voters are eligible to vote in the six states of Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan on Aug 12.
Of that, 661,905 are first-time voters aged between 18 and 21.
