PETALING JAYA: The parties have been wooing voters for months and the two weeks of official campaigning are coming to an end, yet it is difficult to predict the outcome of at least four of the six state elections, according to political observers.
According to some of them, the safest prediction is a “3-3” outcome with the status quo maintained in all six states.
Observers said Kelantan and Penang looked to be the only safe states for the incumbents, with the PAS-led Perikatan Nasional taking the east coast state and the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan staying on in Penang.
The coalitions themselves are playing their cards close to their chest, although some leaders have brazenly declared they can win handsomely.
Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun said he expected Perikatan to make significant inroads in Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan, just like it did in the general election last year.
“If they can capture one or more of these states, they can claim victory this round,” said Oh.
He felt Umno would have an uphill struggle, after its poor performance in the 15th General Election, and predicted that Perikatan should be able to retain Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
“Perikatan is likely to deny Pakatan a two-thirds majority in the other states,” he added.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, has his own opinion.
He felt Perikatan was overly dependent on Malay voters, and this could alienate the non-Muslims.
“There will be some shift of Umno supporters towards Perikatan but it will be minimal and will not affect the results much,” said Azmi.
Umno, he said, was not likely to perform well in Terengganu and Kelantan but “in other states where Pakatan is strong, Umno will do well”.
“The 3-3 status quo will remain,” Azmi said.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Prof Datuk Sivamurugan Pandian also predicted a status quo.
“It will be challenging for Pakatan-Barisan to capture the Perikatan-led states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu since they are very inclined towards the PAS ideology, but should maintain their hold on Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang.
“In Kedah, caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor has become a strong personality,” he said.
The challenge, said Prof Sivamurugan, is to sway the Malay support in the last hours of campaigning.
“The politicians must convince the out-of-state voters to return but also keep canvassing those who are already on their side,” he said.
Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya also felt the status quo would remain.
“The parties are identifying areas where they can snatch some seats. That is why the top leaders are in these areas,” he said.
The top leaders are scheduled to deliver a final push for votes.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will be in Kedah with three different ceramah scheduled after 5pm today.
Perikatan chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, along with top Perikatan leaders like Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man and Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, will deliver a ceramah at Taman Melawati in Selangor at 9pm.
