ALOR SETAR: Kedah, considered a swing state by many, will come under close scrutiny tomorrow with the unity pact trying to do what seems impossible – topple the Perikatan Nasional-led government.
It will be an uphill task, given that caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor is hugely popular thanks to his witty and provincial oratory skills. He speaks with a thick Kedah accent, using words peculiar to Kedahans, and talks directly to the people.
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Assoc Prof Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk said that based on GE15 results, it would be tough for the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional pact to upstage Perikatan, which won 14 of the 15 parliamentary seats last November.
Pakatan only managed to hold on to Sungai Petani.
The Universiti Sains Malaysia Centre for Policy Research and International Studies associate director, however, said it would be difficult to predict the outcome.
“In GE15, Perikatan won more than 50% of the Malay votes. With Muhammad Sanusi’s popularity continuing to surge, Kedah will remain a stronghold for the Islamist party,” he said.
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On paper, Perikatan should romp home, having held the upper hand in 24 Malay-majority seats. That should be enough for a two-thirds majority in the 36-seat assembly.
The constituencies are Jeneri, Bukit Kayu Hitam, Ayer Hitam, Kota Siputeh, Jitra, Kuala Nerang, Bukit Lada, Kubang Rotan, Bukit Pinang, Suka Menanti, Anak Bukit, Pengkalan Kundor, Tokai, Sungai Tiang, Sungai Limau, Guar Chempedak, Belantek, Tanjong Dawai, Pantai Merdeka, Bayu, Kupang, Kuala Ketil, Merbau Pulas and Bandar Baharu.
Political analyst Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri said that although many accusations had been hurled against Muhammad Sanusi, it would not work in Pakatan’s favour.
“In fact, it only gives him an extra advantage,” said the former director of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad Institute of Thoughts.
“The voters, especially PAS supporters, adore him. They see him as a hero,” he said of the incumbent Jeneri assemblyman.
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Among the seats to watch is Alor Mengkudu, where seasoned politician Datuk Mahfuz Omar of Pakatan is upbeat about his chances against former Kedah football great Muhammad Radhi Mat Din of Perikatan. Ahmad Zaharuddin said Mahfuz’s experience in state and federal administration would give him an advantage over Muhammad Radhi.
“But if the green wave persists, then Muhammad Radhi could be a surprise winner,” he said.
Gurun will see another battle of personalities between Pakatan’s Mohammed Firdaus Johari, whose father is Dewan Rakyat Speaker Tan Sri Johari Abdul, and former Kedah football team captain Baddrol Bakhtiar of Perikatan.
Ahmad Zaharuddin believes that Baddrol holds the edge, having shown his leadership qualities when captaining Kedah, Sabah and the national team.
“He was the frontman for Kedah players over unpaid salary issues in late 2019,” he said.
Another seat to watch is Pedu, where former two-term assemblyman Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid of Barisan is trying to make a comeback after 10 years.
The Kedah Umno chairman, who was the assemblyman from 2004 to 2008, is capable of shifting the tide towards the Pakatan-Barisan pact, having served as the state’s mentri besar and minister in the federal government previously.
But it will not be a walk in the park against Perikatan’s incumbent Mohd Radzi Md Amin from PAS.
A Kedah Umno grassroots leader said both candidates have their own strengths.
“Mohd Radzi is a respected PAS leader in Pedu, but voters here also know that Mahdzir has helped them a lot,” he said.
