JOHOR BARU: Amanah, which will be contesting in the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state by-elections, is expected to face a huge task in defending the two seats for the ruling coalition.
Coming so soon after the six state elections which saw Perikatan Nasional making massive inroads, the by-elections will be an acid test for Pakatan Harapan and their now-partner in the unity government Barisan Nasional.
“On paper, Amanah is guaranteed victory in the Pulai parliamentary seat as the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub won by a more than 33,000 majority in a three-cornered fight in the 15th General Election,” said Universiti Teknologi Malaysia politics and governance research group head Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali.
“However, they should not take it for granted even after Barisan, in particular Umno, makes way for Amanah. This is because the state elections have shown there is a transfer of votes from Umno’s Malay voters to Perikatan.
“This trend is expected to continue in the by-elections as a sign of protest against their party leadership,” he said yesterday.
For the Simpang Jeram state seat, Mazlan said Amanah would face an even stronger challenge as the constituency is a known PAS stronghold.
In the Johor state election in March last year, Salahuddin defended the seat but saw his majority drop to 2,399 votes from the more than 7,000 he recorded in the 14th General Election.
“Both Pulai and Simpang Jeram are Malay-majority seats,” he said, adding that Amanah could see its majority in Pulai drop to about 10,000 votes.
Meanwhile, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia political analyst Dr Mohd Akbal Abdullah said that if there is another low voter turnout in the by-elections, it could spell trouble for the unity government.
“In the six state elections, there was voting polarisation – where support for candidates was based on his or her race instead of whether they could do a good job as a representative.
“This trend will continue in the by-elections. If the voter turnout for both Pulai and Simpang Jeram does not exceed 50%, then Pakatan is in trouble,” he said.
Salahuddin, who was the incumbent for both seats, died on July 23 due to a brain haemorrhage. He was 61.
He was Amanah deputy president and the Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Minister.
