JOHOR BARU: Economic development rather than 3R issues will be key to winning hearts and minds in the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state seat by-elections, say analysts.
This is since the diverse ethnic composition of both constituencies – where non-Malays make up over 40% of voters – will mean that political coalitions will have to appeal across communal lines and to swing voters, they said.
Of the two seats, Simpang Jeram, a semi-urban seat close to the historic town of Muar, is the more hotly contested one as Pakatan Harapan won it with only a slim majority of votes against Perikatan Nasional in the Johor state election in March 2022.
Pakatan and Perikatan are going head-to-head again for those two seats after they fell vacant following the death of Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Minister Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub.
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn’s Dr Mohd Akbal Abdullah said that PAS, a Perikatan component party, is going all out to recapture Simpang Jeram as they had once held it for two terms from 2008 to 2018.
In the Johor state election, Pakatan garnered 8,749 votes while Perikatan managed to attain 6,350 in Simpang Jeram. Barisan came in third at 6,062 votes.
Mohd Akbal said persuading the swing voters is crucial to both coalitions as each already has a core base of supporters.
“Bringing economic development will help them get the fence-sitters as most of the people living in Pulai and Simpang Jeram are those in M40 and B40 categories.”
In comparison, Pakatan already seems to have the upper hand in Pulai as the late Salahuddin managed to garner about 64,900 votes out of a total of 117,303 in the 14th General Election, said Mohd Akbal.
Pakatan’s ally Barisan Nasional attained 31,726 votes, while Perikatan only managed 20,677 votes.
Another political scientist, Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali, said unlike their counterparts in the Malay heartland states in the north and northeast, Malay voters in Johor are not swayed by racial and religious rhetoric.
“Perikatan will use the same tactic of raising Malay and ummah (Muslim community) unity, hoping to get the support of the Malays,” he added.
“But both Pulai and Simpang Jeram can be considered mixed seats, where gaining the majority of votes from one particular group does not necessarily mean they would win,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).
Pulai and Simpang Jeram voters want candidates that can bring in economic development from the federal-level unity government and the Barisan Nasional-led Johor government, Mazlan said.
“The voters in Pulai and Simpang Jeram surely want economic development to continue after this by-election,” he added.
Perikatan is taking on Pakatan and an independent candidate in the by-elections which will take place on Sept 9.
Malay voters make up 44.18% of the total number of registered voters in Pulai, followed by Chinese (40.46%), Indians (12.31%) and others (3.06%).
Meanwhile, in Simpang Jeram, 51.87% of the voters are Malay, 44.58% are Chinese, 2.53% are Indians and 0.99% are others.
Mazlan said that for Perikatan candidates, they would need to change their approach if they want to get support from voters, including from the non-Malays, in Pulai and Simpang Jeram.
