Increase in star power expected ahead of crucial weekend
JOHOR BARU: Taman Perling resident Raja Mohd Kamarizan Raja Mohd Khalid has only been to one political event in the Pulai parliamentary by-election, even though it’s already day seven in the official campaign period.
The 44-year-old businessman said he left for Indonesia on Aug 29 but managed to attend a ceramah by Barisan Nasional prior to his trip.
“I just do not have the time to go to the ceramah by the political parties. I just read about the candidates and their campaigns either through the news or on social media,” said the father of three.
“For me, there is nothing much to expect in this by-election and with only two parties contesting, it has been a let-down.”
Raja Mohd Kamarizan’s views echoed the mood of the by-election in this constituency that borders Johor Baru city and in Simpang Jeram, a state seat in northern Johor that is next to Muar.
Seats at the ceramah by the three main coalitions have been mostly empty, as there has been a lack of star power among those invited to speak.
So far, only Perikatan Nasional election director Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor was able to pull in a crowd when he launched the coalition’s election machinery on Aug 23 in Muar, four days before nomination day.
But as campaigning enters the second and most crucial weekend, Pakatan Harapan, its ally Barisan Nasional, and their rival Perikatan Nasional are expected to ramp up their campaigns with rallies featuring their top leaders.
The Pakatan-Barisan coalition is taking on Perikatan for the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state seats on Sept 9.
Tomorrow, Pakatan will hold a mega ceramah featuring the likes of Pakatan chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Barisan chief Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in Taman Desa, Sungai Abong, which is part of Simpang Jeram constituency.
Other senior Pakatan leaders that are expected to speak include Amanah president Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke.
Perikatan chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is making his long-awaited appearance at two mega ceramah in Pulai tonight.
Pakatan will need its unity government partner, Umno, which leads Barisan, to deliver the Malay votes for Pulai and Simpang Jeram, which are both mixed seats.
In Pulai, Malays make up 44.17% of electors, while Chinese comprise 40.46%, Indians 12.30%, and others are 3.05%.
In Simpang Jeram, Malay voters make up 51.87%, while Chinese (44.58%), Indians (2.53%), and others make up 0.99%.
Umno hopes to buck the trend in the six state elections last month, where a majority of its supporters did not vote for Pakatan, according to studies done by the think tank Ilham Centre.
However, despite Johor being its birthplace and fortress, Umno is seeing the same sense of resistance among its members.
One Umno branch leader said it has been tough reaching out to the party’s supporters.
“They are still angry and confused about why the party is forsaking its principles and working with Pakatan, especially DAP, in the Federal Government,” said the grassroots leader, who declined to be named.
“When we asked them to vote for Pakatan, most of them, in particular the old voters, did not give any response. Their expressions went blank.”
Political scientist Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said that Umno was not the party it once was, even in Johor.
“Pakatan will need Umno to give them the Malay votes in both Pulai and Simpang Jeram, but Umno is not that strong anymore,” said the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia politics and governance research group head.
“The good news is that Umno has been working really hard since nomination day to get the Malays to support Pakatan, and they have to do it because Johor is their fortress.
“If Umno is able to do that, then they will get respect from their unity government partners, and Pakatan can see their majority in Pulai and Simpang Jeram increase.”
Mazlan added that if Umno did not bring in the Malay votes, then Pakatan would need to see high voter turnout, in particular from the non-Malays.
He said Pakatan-Barisan would need to increase their efforts to get outstation voters to return home, as in the Pulai constituency alone, about 30% of voters are based in Singapore and the Klang Valley.
As for Perikatan, Mazlan said it was unlikely that the coalition, which includes the Islamist party PAS, would get the non- Malay vote in either Pulai or Simpang Jeram.
However, Perikatan has shown that it is popular among young, first-time voters, who make up between 20% and 25% of the population in both seats.
“But there is not much issue that both sides can play on. Moreover, these by-elections come right after the six state elections, and people are just tired of politics,” he added.
Mazlan predicted that Pakatan would have a good chance of retaining the seat with a bigger majority if the voter turnout was more than 60%.
“From a study I did, Pakatan is the favourite to win in Pulai, but they only have a slight lead in Simpang Jeram, where PAS is catching up to them,” he added.
In GE15, the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub retained Pulai with a majority of 33,174 votes when he polled 64,900 against Barisan Nasional’s Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed’s 31,726 and Perikatan Nasional’s Loh Kah Yong’s 20,677.
In the Johor state election held in March last year, Salahuddin was also successful in defending the Simpang Jeram seat in a four-cornered fight, getting 8,749 votes with a 2,399 majority.
He won against Perikatan’s Zarul Salleh (6,350 votes), Barisan’s Lokman Md Don (6,062) and Pejuang’s Mahaizal Mahmor (208).
