PETALING JAYA: The comfortable by-election victories in Johor are proof that the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional political pact can get formidable, say analysts.
They said the results in the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections showed that Barisan could still count on its supporters when it mattered.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s (UTM) Razak Faculty Perdana Centre political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said the outcome of the by-elections was clear in terms of the people’s choice.
He said harping on race and religious issues did not work with Johoreans, who were more concerned with the realities on the ground.
“The green wave did not reach the state as it did in some other states,” he said, adding that Umno managed to prove that it can rise in Johor with a newfound confidence.
Mazlan also pointed out that the wins will give much-needed confidence to the unity government to proceed with its reform agenda.
Political scientist Prof Dr Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said Perikatan was the obvious loser despite cutting down the majority in Pulai.
This showed a much weaker transfer of Umno votes to Perikatan, as in Selangor and Penang, underlining Umno Johor’s stronger control of its base, he said.
“It also shows that Perikatan is ‘unelectable’ in Johor despite the controversy of (Datuk Seri) Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s DNAA.
“(Tan Sri) Muhyiddin Yassin, (Tan Sri) Abdul Hadi Awang and (Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad have lost badly.
“If Perikatan wants to get a better chance to rule Malaysia, then it must roll back its mono-ethno and mono-religious narrative and move closer to the centre,” he said.
However, Wong cautioned that by-elections and even state elections could be bad indicators for federal electoral fortunes.
He said in June 2016, Barisan won two by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar after three-cornered contests with PAS and Amanah.
He claimed that Barisan lost the 14th General Election as a result of repeating the three-cornered game and putting on a poor performance in the 15th General Election in an effort to replicate the landslides in the previous Melaka and Johor state elections.
Political analyst Dr Md Akbal Abdullah of Universiti Tun Hussein Onn said: “Amanah had the voter’s component, but Umno were the ones with the members and machinery.
“At this moment, Umno is testing its own strengths with Pakatan and its weaknesses at the grassroot level,” he said.
As for Johoreans, Md Akbal said issues such as race, religion and royalty did not resonate with them because they already had a clear stand on the matter.
Johoreans also expressed their dislike for the “chaotic situation”, as it did not pertain to them in any way, particularly in relation to those on the east coast with Perikatan, he added.
However, Johor Umno information chief Datuk Md Jais Sarday has warned Barisan that it cannot rest on its laurels as many of its members still have trouble accepting Pakatan.
He said the party could not afford to be complacent and estimated that about a third of Umno members in Pulai did not turn out to vote because of Barisan’s cooperation with Pakatan.
DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke said the by-election victories proved that the Pakatan-Barisan pact was a winning formula despite some previous setbacks.
He said Barisan and Umno campaign activists went all out to campaign for Pakatan even as its rivals in Perikatan attempted to drive a wedge between them.
