PETALING JAYA: Parts of Malaysia have been baking under a heatwave, but brace yourself, the worse is yet to come, with a government report projecting severe dry spells next year and in 2026.
According to Malaysia’s Third National Communication and Second Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), these dry spells will cause up to 36.3% decrease in rainfall in certain areas.
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Reduced rainfall will affect raw water supplies, rice harvests, rubber and oil palm yields as well as livestock.
The report was prepared by the Energy, Science, Technology, Environment and Climate Change Ministry in 2018.
Among the areas that will be worst hit are the Sungai Dungun and Sungai Kemaman basins in Terengganu.
Further in the future, dry spells are projected to occur in Sarawak from 2045 to 2055, in the upper central region (Oya, Mukah, Tatau and Balingian river basins), northwest (Similajau, Suai, Niah and Sibuti river basins), as well as the Rajang, Saribas, Lupar and Kemena river basins.
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Sabah, however, is not expected to be hit by such severe dry spells at that time.
Based on findings from the El Nino phenomenon that occurred between March 2015 and April 2016, the report said affected dams could include the Padang Saga, Beris, Muda and Pedu dams (Kedah); Bukit Merah dam (Perak); Timah Tasoh dam (Perlis); Labong dam (Johor); Bukit Kwong dam (Kelantan); and Gemencheh dam (Negri Sembilan).
Water levels at these dams fell below the 50% warning mark for at least three consecutive months, from January to August 2016.
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“Future projections indicate that these dams may face significant dry spells with a return period of more than 10 years by 2040.
“Effective adaptation actions should be planned and implemented immediately to ensure sufficient water resources during these dry spell periods,” the report said.
Major rice planting areas in Peninsular Malaysia may also see drops in crop yields of between 6% to 31% from 2030 to 2050 due to climate change.
“In particular, studies on dry spells indicate that around 106 water-deficit months will occur in these areas for those periods,” the report said.
