Calm before the storm: Kuala Kubu Baharu is a semi-urban state seat located in the Hulu Selangor district. — KK SHAM/The Star
PETALING JAYA: While it will unlikely change the power dynamics in Selangor or at the national level, the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election is set to be a fierce battleground of competing narratives about the Federal Government’s handling of recent controversies that have strained communal ties.
Observers and analysts said because the by-election will not affect the unity government alliance’s hold on the Selangor state assembly, Opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional will pull out all the stops to persuade the constituency’s 40,226 voters to register their anger with the government at the ballot box.
While data from the Statistics Department shows that the inflation rate dipped to 1.8% in March, from 3.4% in the same month last year, the Opposition is likely to play up cost of living issues in its by-election campaign.
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Also at the back of people’s minds, especially the non-Muslims who make up 50% of the constituency’s electorate, is how politicians tied to the unity government have inflamed emotions over certain issues.
A slew of racial issues has been under the spotlight of late – arguments over the listing of bak kut teh as a national heritage dish and socks bearing the word “Allah” being the most recent.
In March, Opposition member Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan had raised issues involving DAP leaders, among them over an alleged “non-Malay prime minister” statement by party veteran Tan Sri Lim Kit Siang.
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Takiyuddin had also criticised DAP’s Cheras MP Tan Kok Wai for pushing for local council elections to be held in Kuala Lumpur, and Beruas MP Datuk Ngeh Koo Ham for saying a non-Muslim legal expert should be part of the special committee studying the functions of the syariah court.
An equally important issue is the push by certain Indian-based political parties to get voters to turn the by-election into a referendum over claims about the government’s treatment of their community.
Political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said each side’s choice of candidate is an important factor in the by-election.
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Fielding a Chinese candidate from DAP, said Mazlan, could maintain the status quo in Kuala Kubu Baharu as the seat was held by Lee Kee Hiong since 2013.
The by-election was triggered after she passed away on March 21, at the age of 58.
For Perikatan, its decision to field a Malay candidate could also draw in the votes.
“The selection of candidates for both parties still follows racial lines,” the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia academic pointed out.
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Mazlan is of the opinion that DAP is able to attract 80% to 85% of the non-Malay vote and at least 25% of the Malay vote.
“Perikatan is able to reach up to 70% Malay votes, but I think it will be difficult for them to attract non-Malay votes,” he added.
Mazlan is expecting the campaign in Kuala Kubu Baharu to be intense and the results could be an indication of the people’s acceptance of the unity government.
If Pakatan loses or wins with a lower majority, it would give the perception that the people were not happy with the government’s performance, he pointed out.
“This will give moral support to the Opposition,” he added.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar argued that while racial rhetoric has an effect on election campaigns, it would be only minimal.
“Campaigns playing up racial sentiments are usually not done openly, so the impact is minimal,” he said.
Hisomuddin added that voters want to see quality candidates and stable parties, and the current challenge for the DAP is to overcome the image of disunity within the unity government coalition.
“MCA and MIC’s open stance of rejecting cooperation with DAP does not send a good message as these parties are together in the government.
“It is important for government parties to display unity, particularly so during election campaigns,” he said.
Hisomuddin is expecting a lower voter turnout, in line with voting trends in previous polls.
He is anticipating the figure to be lower than the 69.25% voter turnout that was recorded in the six state elections last year.
“The low turnout would be because voters are residing in bigger towns for work. This group usually does not come back to vote,” he added.
Hisomuddin also said voters’ perception on how the government handles issues, particularly sensitive ones, might also make them shy away from the ballot box this time.
“Whether it is a protest or disenchantment towards the government, there will be an effect on voter turnout,” he said.
The unity government has named DAP’s Pang Sock Tao, an aide to Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming, as its candidate for the Kuala Kubu Baharu polls.
Perikatan’s candidate is Hulu Selangor Bersatu acting division chief Khairul Azhari Saut.
The Kuala Kubu Baharu electorate consists of 46.36% Malays, Chinese (30.65%), Indians (18.02%) and other ethnicities (4.98%).
