HULU SELANGOR: Although the focus of the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election is still the battle between Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional, the surprise entry of two candidates could still impact which coalition will ultimately triumph, says an analyst.
This is because, as some observers have argued, the winning majority could be slim and the two other candidates could potentially steal votes that would have otherwise gone to either coalition.
Political scientist Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said that although PRM and the independent candidate would not win, their campaigns could impact whether Pakatan or Perikatan triumphs.
“Since this battle would probably be close, the two candidates may just be able to split the votes,” said Tunku Mohar of the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM).
A few days ago, another analyst had reportedly predicted that the winning majority in the May 11 by-election could be by about 1,000 votes due to expected drop in turnout among the constituency’s voters as the by-election is not seen as critical to whoever controls the Selangor government.
In the August state election last year, candidates who were not from Pakatan or Perikatan managed to garner more than 1,600 votes.
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This time, Kuala Kubu Baharu is being fought over by four candidates – one each from Pakatan and Perikatan, one from Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) and one independent candidate.
'CLICK TO ENLARGE'PRM is being represented by Hafizah Zainuddin while logistics company manager Nyau Ke Xin is running as an independent.
Meanwhile, Khairul Azhari Saut will be carrying the Perikatan banner while Pang Sock Tao is representing Pakatan.
In last year’s state election, Pakatan’s Lee Kee Hiong had retained the Kuala Kubu Baharu seat with a 4,119 majority.
Lee had held the seat for three terms since the 2013 election.
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Another factor that will impact Pakatan’s chances this time, said Tunku Mohar, is the decision by MCA, a component party of Pakatan’s ally Barisan Nasional, to stay out of the polls.
“In a closely-contested election, every vote counts.
“Their boycott may hurt the chances of the Pakatan candidate in this by-election,” said Tunku Mohar.
His colleague, Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood said that because the constituency has a large non-Malay voter population, the focus will be on these two communities.
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“In a predominantly non-Malay majority constituency, the focus will be on getting the Chinese and Indian votes,” said Nik Kamal of IIUM.
The Kuala Kubu Baharu’s electorate consists of 46.36% Malays, 30.65% Chinese, 18.02% Indians and 4.98% other ethnicities.
Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said that Indian voters are likely to back Pakatan despite speculations that they may ditch the ruling coalition on allegations that they are dissatisfied with the government.
“As the Indian community still needs help and attention from the state and federal government, I expect them to support DAP.
“They have no choice,” added Mazlan.
He said that despite the presence of Hafizah and Nyau, it is the political norm in Peninsular Malaysia to back big coalitions.
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“The political culture in Peninsular Malaysia does not see the importance of independent candidates and small parties, except in Sabah and Sarawak, where they are considered as an alternative.
“In the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election, these candidates will not have a big impact and they are also expected to lose their deposit,” said Mazlan.
A candidate’s RM5,000 deposit paid to the Election Commission to contest in a state seat will be forfeited if they fail to obtain one-eighth or 12.5% of the total votes cast.
Kuala Kubu Baharu voters will head to the polls on May 11.
