NIBONG TEBAL: Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate for the Sungai Bakap by-election Dr Joohari Ariffin has a chance to disrupt the status quo and recapture the Sg Bakap state seat, say analysts.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia senior political science lecturer Jamaie Hamil suggested that Sungai Bakap state seat could be considered a "grey area", which was PKR's stronghold for three terms since 2008 before it was won by PAS in 2023.
However, he said success hinges on several factors.
"Firstly, it depends on the campaign strategy employed by the unity government to instil confidence among voters that could lead to victory.
"Secondly, even if PAS secures victory in the constituency, its impact may be limited since Penang is under the unity government.
"Thirdly, considering the states governed by Perikatan, there has been no significant progress or initiatives that could rival those under the unity government, including in Sabah and Sarawak.
"If the unity machinery successfully convinces voters of their track record, this would be an advantage for Joohari,” he explained
Reflecting on PKR's victories in the Sungai Bakap state assembly seat during the General Elections (GEs) of 2008, 2013, and 2018 - where the party secured a majority ranging from about 1,800 to 2,300 votes, Jamaie expressed optimism about the coalition led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's prospects to reclaim the seat in the upcoming by-election.
"Besides, if we look at the history of Sungai Bakap in the three previous GEs, the actual competition was between PKR and Barisan Nasional (BN), not with PAS. PAS did not even give PKR competition before,” he said.
The political observer also said that the absence of independent candidates or other small political parties in the by-election reflects a trend observed in the previous seven by-elections.
This trend underscores that the true competition lies solely between the government and the Opposition coalition, rendering these smaller entities irrelevant in such electoral arenas.
Political analyst Prof Dr Jayum Jawan expressed confidence that Joohari, a former teacher, could break the status quo of the seat.
He emphasised that Joohari, supported by the coalition at the federal and state levels, is not an "underdog" candidate.
He noted that while Joohari acknowledged personal pressure, the Sungai Bakap by-election is viewed as a battleground where Malay political parties vie for Malay voter support, transcending individual candidates.
"It is between PKR (+ UMNO) and Bersatu (+ PAS). A win for PKR and PH will energise Malay support towards these two. This battleground underscores the shift in Malay support,” the Universiti Putra Malaysia Political Science lecturer told Bernama.
Jayum, who is also a Fellow of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia, said the straight fight between PH and Perikatan Nasional (PN), devoid of any third-party disruption, underscores the strategic planning by the ruling and Opposition parties for the by-election.
In the upcoming July 6 polls, Joohari will face a challenge from Nibong Tebal PAS deputy chief Abidin Ismail, who is representing Perikatan, in a direct contest for the seat.
The by-election is being held following the death of incumbent Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24 due to stomach inflammation.
In the state election held in August last year, Nor Zamri, who was Nibong Tebal PAS chief, defeated PH candidate Nurhidayah Che Rose by a majority of 1,563 votes.
The Sungai Bakap state seat, which is one of three state seats under the Nibong Tebal parliamentary constituency, has 39,279 registered voters consisting of 39,222 ordinary voters and 57 police personnel. - Bernama
