May the best man win: Joohari (right) and Abidin are vying for the state seat, representing Pakatan and Perikatan respectively. — ZHAFARAN NASIB/The Star
NIBONG TEBAL: When the by-election in Sungai Bakap boils down to a numbers game, the non-Malay support matters – out of 38,409 registered voters, 22.5% are Chinese and 17.4% Indian.
With the total 39.9% both communities make up in the state seat’s electoral roll, it’s no wonder then that there will be a rush by Pakatan Harapan to consolidate the non-Malay votes this weekend.
But in last year’s state election, over 9,000 constituents did not bother to vote, so if the voter turnout is low on July 6, political observers said Pakatan might find itself at a disadvantage.
Penang PKR vice-chairman Goh Choon Aik said that this weekend, ahead of ballots being cast next Saturday, many politicians will be going house-to-house to visit 5,600 mainly Chinese voters in Sungai Bakap’s larger suburbs.
There are about 8,500 Chinese voters in the constituency on the mainland.
“We have not gone to these suburbs because the voters are of the working class and they will not be there on weekdays.
“We must go this weekend to meet them and understand their hopes and needs,” said Goh, who is assemblyman of Bukit Tambun, a constituency adjacent to Sungai Bakap.
One of the party’s national leaders who has been hard at work in the area is Sungai Buloh MP Datuk R. Ramanan, who is also Deputy Entrepreneurial Development and Cooperatives Minister.
He had already visited Sungai Bakap on June 23 and will be having chit-chat and teh tarik sessions with voters today and tomorrow in neighbourhoods where the majority are Indian voters.
Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political scientist Dr Azmil Mohd Tayeb agreed that if Chinese voters choose to sit out the July 6 by-election out of fatigue or frustration, it could prove a disaster for Pakatan.
“For the ruling coalition, a high turnout among non-Malay voters is vital,” he said.
After this week’s slow start to the campaigning that featured minor issues like the academic qualifications of candidates, the focus has begun to shift towards more pressing topics such as high cost of living, job availability and liveable wages.
But political commentator Jeff Ooi, formerly Penang island’s Jelutong MP for two terms, predicted that PKR candidate Dr Joohari Ariffin will have the upper hand while PAS’ Abidin Ismail will be the underdog.
“You can see that the visits by politicians, who include ministers and deputy ministers, last week were consolidating the almost 40% non-Malay votes.
“So it is going to be a fight for the Malay votes,” he observed.
He said local issues matter a great deal in Sungai Bakap, especially the water pressure since the area is far from Sungai Muda in the north, which supplies 80% of the treated water to Penang.
“The water pressure in Sungai Bakap has been low for years, so how are developers going to take an interest in building modern high-rise housing there?” Ooi asked.
He pointed out that Sungai Bakap is just 6km from Batu Kawan in a straight line.
“With Batu Kawan growing as the latest hi-tech industrial centre of Penang, Sungai Bakap can be transformed into a modern suburb for workers and their families, but it needs proper water supply,” he added.
The voters, said Ooi, might feel inclined to choose an assemblyman aligned with the state government and the flurry of politicians traversing there this weekend could help move the needle.
“Things can still change and this weekend will be an important one,” he noted.
For Perikatan Nasional, the Malay votes remain their most crucial element for victory.
Penang PAS secretary Iszuree Ibrahim said it is critical for Malay voters to come out in full force like they did in the last state election, when the coalition earned more than 50% of Malay votes.
“We need at least 45% of the votes from party members and fence sitters to win comfortably,” he said.
He said a slight shift in Chinese and Indian votes towards Perikatan would ensure a victory too.
The PKR Youth election director Fadzli Roslan calculated that a shift of 15% in Malay votes to Pakatan would bring victory.
“The combined efforts of Pakatan and Barisan Nasional will help too,” he said.
USM social sciences senior lecturer Dr Razlini Mohd Ramli agreed that low voter turnout would work against Pakatan.
“Pakatan must depend on the fence sitters and Umno supporters who voted for Perikatan in the last election.
“A possible scenario would be Indian voters becoming kingmakers, especially if many Chinese voters abstain as an act of protest and Malay voters stick with Perikatan’s ‘green wave’,” she said.
