SHAH ALAM: The unity government alliance needs a 4% increase in Malay support to defeat Perikatan Nasional in the Sungai Bakap state seat, says a think tank.
Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) said the alliance comprising Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional garnered 32% of support from Malay voters in the 2023 state election, when Perikatan won the seat by 1,563 votes.
IDE executive chairman Datuk Prof Redzuan Othman said Pakatan, which is contesting the seat against Perikatan, must also get a high turnout among Chinese and Indian voters if it hopes to defeat Perikatan.
According to IDE's survey of Sungai Bakap voters, Pakatan's support levels among Chinese and Indian voters stood at 82% and 77%, respectively.
Chinese and Indian voters comprise 22.4% and 17.2% of Sungai Bakap voters, while Malay community voters comprise 59.2%.
IDE's projections are based on a face-to-face survey of 786 respondents who are also voters in Sungai Bakap and simulations of how their sentiments could play out in the by-election.
Pakatan's Dr Joohari Ariffin is taking on Abidin Ismail of Perikatan in the by-election, which was called after Nor Zamri Latiff's death in May. There are 38,409 eligible voters in Sungai Bakap.
Redzuan said that Pakatan could potentially get enough Malay support in the campaign period before polling as feedback has shown that Barisan's traditional Malay voters are becoming increasingly warm towards the unity government.
“In the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) by-election, Malay support for Pakatan increased to 3% due to better coordination and cooperation between Umno and Pakatan parties,” Redzuan told a press conference at IDE's offices here on Wednesday (July 3).
“From the strong commitment we are seeing from Umno members and supporters so far in the campaigning period, it is possible that Malay support for Pakatan could increase just like it did during KKB”.
In the May 11 KKB by-election, Pakatan won the seat against a challenge from Perikatan by a 3,869-vote majority.
Redzuan presented three simulations of how Pakatan could capture Sungai Bakap, provided it could maintain support levels among Malays, Chinese and Indians at 36%, 82% and 77%, respectively.
In the first simulation, where the turnout rates among Malays, Chinese, and Indians are 62%, 60% and 60%, Pakatan could win by a majority of 2,403 votes.
In the second projection, Pakatan would win by 2,232 votes if the turnout rate among Malays, Chinese and Indians is 66%, 60% and 62%, respectively.
If the turnout rate were 69% for Malays, 60% for Chinese and 62% for Indians, Pakatan would be able to win by a 2,404-vote majority.
