KOTA KINABALU: An electoral pact between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan in the next Sabah election is a credible possibility given the state's complex political ground, with some local parties vying to keep national parties out.
Political analyst Rahezzal Shah said looking at the current political scenario, the two national coalitions were likely to work together as they might find it difficult to cut deals with the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) or other parties to share the 73 state seats at stake.
"The way I see it, Barisan and Pakatan will find it most beneficial to work together as they don't have to be bogged down with seat sharing with other parties," said the Sabah UiTM senior lecturer on Politics and Public Policy when interviewed recently.
With bridges burned following the January 2023 falling out between Sabah Barisan-Umno chairman Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin and GRS chairman Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, Rahezzal said any chance of the two parties patching up seems remote.
He said Bung Moktar is not showing any signs he will bury the hatchet with Hajiji, or with other GRS components like Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Sabah STAR.
"Bung Moktar fiercely attacked the (GRS) government at the recent state assembly, I don't see a way back for them to work together," he said.
"One option which is attractive for Barisan-Umno is to form a pact with Pakatan.
"Umno will be happy as it can monopolise the rural Muslim native seats.
"While for Pakatan's Upko, (such an alliance) will also guarantee them standing in more non-Muslim native seats, beyond those offered when they were with Barisan or even with Parti Warisan.
"I think this (Pakatan- Barisan) setup is the most plausible at the moment," Rahezzal said, adding that he believed Upko stood to gain the most from seat allocations under such a pact.
"Their selling point will be that national parties PKR and Umno and local party Upko are working together. There is a strong synergy.
"Seat allocations will be less problematic. Umno can contest all rural Muslim native seats with a few given to PKR, while suburban seats can go to PKR and DAP.
"DAP can (contest) most of the urban seats while non-Muslim native seats can go to Upko," he said, adding that they could double the seats allocated to them in the last state election under the Warisan-Pakatan coalition in 2020's snap polls.
PKR was given seven seats and Upko 12, with both parties only winning two each.
"The main issue for all political parties is no longer who’s the strongest or what sort of pact could give them the best chance of winning.
"They are looking at what sort of pact could give them the best returns in terms of the number of seats," he noted.
The Sabah Barisan comprises Umno, Parti Bersatu Rakyat that Sabah (PBRS), MCA and MIC, while Sabah Pakatan consists of PKR, DAP, Upko and Amanah
Rahezzal did not rule out the possibility of native-based Parti KDM led by Datuk Peter Anthony, who has been sitting in the opposition at the state level but supports the national unity government, joining the Pakatan-Barisan pact or even becoming part of Pakatan.
However, he said another state-based opposition, Parti Warisan led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, appears to be staying aloof from team-ups although there were overtures between Bung Moktar and Shafie for a possible electoral pact.
Chief Minister Hajiji, meanwhile, has often said that his GRS coalition is comfortable with the current working relationship with Sabah Pakatan.
However, Rahezzal said Hajiji still has to handle his GRS partners, who are eager for GRS to go it alone.
Any missteps could see partners threatening to leave the coalition, he added.
Among those eager for the eight-member GRS to go solo are Sabah STAR president Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) president Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee and Usno president Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia.
"In the end, whatever pact is forged will be decided on seat allocation," Rahezzal said.
He said political alliances in Sabah will remain fluid until nomination day.
Whichever way the players align, he said multi-cornered fights are already on the cards in many seats.
The state election is due by October next year but could be called at any time.
