Seeking much-needed attention: Several members of the Orang Asli Kampung Tembaga Pos Gob community met by the Bernama team in Gua Musang. The community could contribute between 2,000 and 2,600 votes. — Bernama
PETALING JAYA: As the battle for the Nenggiri by-election reaches its final day, rival coalitions are focusing their attention on wooing the Orang Asli, those under 40, Kesedar settlers, and former Umno supporters.
Their focus on these critical groups is important given the fact that the previous winning margin for this Kelantan state seat was a mere 810 votes.
The turnout among different voting groups will be crucial to Barisan Nasional as to whether it can recapture this seat, its former stronghold, from Perikatan Nasional, said analysts and politicians.
For Barisan, the coalition’s lynchpin party Umno has invested much of its resources on getting as many Orang Asli voters out tomorrow. This is because the community could contribute between 2,000 and 2,600 votes.
According to Election Commission (EC) data, only about 1,400 of them had turned out to vote in the last state election. Of that number, about 150 had voted for Perikatan while the rest supported Barisan.
“Although this group has always voted for Barisan, this time there are signs that they are more open to Perikatan,” said Institut Darul Ehsan’s Kamarulbahrin Zahid, who has been surveying sentiments in Nenggiri in the past week.
“Perikatan has never before been able to penetrate into Orang Asli settlements, but for this by-election, they have set up outposts and camps, which shows the community is slowly accepting them,” he said when contacted.
On the Perikatan side, the state ruling coalition was able to wrest the seat from Barisan in 2023 thanks to the “green wave,” which was made up of largely voters under the age of 40.
The EC’s breakdown of all 22 of the constituency’s voting districts showed that Perikatan had dominated in all voting streams where youth are estimated to make up the majority.
About 61% of the 20,259 voters in the constituency, or 12,387, are aged between 18 and 39.
Umno is banking on its Kelantan youth chief Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani to recapture Nenggiri while Perikatan has fielded Mohd Rizwadi Ismail, a coordinator of state religious teachers in the Gua Musang district.
Even though Umno hopes to attract younger voters through Azmawi, who is 38, Perikatan leader Dr Afif Bahardin argued that this cohort still largely backs Perikatan.
“We have seen this in all by- elections since the 2023 state election. Our support levels among Malay Muslims are still between 78% and 80%,” said Dr Afif, a supreme council member at Perikatan component party Bersatu.
He pointed to the Sungai Bakap by-election last month, where Perikatan managed to hold on to the Penang state seat and double its winning majority to more than 4,200 votes.
Perikatan is looking to do the same in Nenggiri and to achieve this result, it needs to ensure that about 4,000 young voters working outside of the constituency return to vote.
“Our candidate spent last weekend in the Klang valley to meet with some of these voters to persuade them to return. We believe many will return because it’s been two months since Hari Raya Aidiladha where many Kelantanese ‘balik kampung’ (returned to their hometown),” Dr Afif said.
Kamarulbahrin said another crucial voting bloc will be the 7,000 settlers in the Kesedar land development scheme.
“If Barisan can solve their land issues, this will be advantageous,” he said.
Political scientist Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said Umno will also have to entice its older supporters who shied away from the 2023 state elections due to the party’s cooperation with DAP.
“Umno loyalists here tend to be older voters. From what we observed, these supporters are responding positively to Umno campaigners,” said Yusri, who has also led survey teams into Nenggiri on behalf of polling outfit Ilham Centre.
“But whether this positive response will turn into actual votes is a different matter,” said the senior lecturer at Universiti Malaysia Terengganu.
