PETALING JAYA: A “low-profile” campaign, the absence of controversial Pakatan Harapan leaders, and a swing among Orang Asli voters towards Umno were among the factors that led to Barisan Nasional’s surprise win in the Nenggiri by-election, say analysts.
Barisan also fielded the right candidate in the Kelantan seat because it managed to convince traditional Umno supporters to return to the fold in droves, thus increasing its vote share from 46.2% in the state elections last year to 60.7%.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Barisan also successfully leveraged Umno veteran and long-time Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah’s influence to restore the support it lost in the state polls last year.
“With Tengku Razaleigh’s influence, the segment of Orang Asli voters who became Barisan’s fixed deposit was successfully restored and contributed to Umno’s victory,” he said.
Fielding local boy Mohd Azmawi Fikri as Barisan’s candidate was the correct choice as he is from Kampung Bertam Lama and known for his community service work, added Hisommudin.
On the other hand, Perikatan Nasional made a mistake when it fielded former PAS leader Mohd Rizwadi Ismail as it may have caused dissatisfaction among Gua Musang’s Bersatu leaders.
“This likely led to protest votes where many of their supporters did not go out to cast their ballots,” said Hisommudin of Bersatu, a component party of Perikatan together with PAS.
Despite having a low-profile campaign and no election manifesto, Barisan’s campaign was effective as it focused on targeted group talks to persuade Umno members and their supporters to back the coalition, he said.
“Top leaders went to the ground to explain and clarify issues for their members. It was an effective approach, coupled with a structured response to address issues of cooperation with Pakatan and DAP,” said Hisommudin.
Barisan recaptured the Nenggiri state seat when Mohd Azmawi Fikri won by a majority of 3,352 votes.
Azmawi polled 9,091 votes to beat Rizwadi who got 5,739 votes.
Political scientist Assoc Prof Mazlan Ali said the high voter turnout, which was unusual for a by-election, showed that Umno was successful in its traditional strategy of mobilising voters using targeted and small ceramah (rallies).
“Mini ceramah are Umno’s speciality. Compared with Perikatan’s strategy of holding large-scale meetings, Umno was focused on holding small group meetings that were more targeted,” said Assoc Prof Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
He added that the results showed that Orang Asli voters strongly backed Umno and have completely rejected Perikatan and the Kelantan state government.Nusantara Strategic Research Academy senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the Nenggiri by-election marks the first time since the 15th General Election in 2022 that the incumbent party has lost to a challenger.
“To make matters worse, Kelantan is a PAS stronghold. To lose by a majority of over 3,000 votes is really a slap in PAS’s face,” he said.
Azmi also said Barisan’s strategy of distancing itself from Pakatan paid off, as it managed to gain the support of its core Umno supporters – as shown by the voter turnout that shot to 73.9% compared with 61% last year.
“The extra 13 percentage points came from Umno supporters who came out in droves to support Umno. Hence, the huge turnout,” he added.
On top of retaining the polling districts it won last year, Barisan seized 10 polling districts from Perikatan, which only won in three of them – Pasir Tumboh, Ladang SEDC and Kesedar Limau Kasturi.
Last year, during the state elections, Perikatan won the postal voting stream and 13 out 22 polling districts.
Barisan then only managed to win the early voting stream and seven polling districts – Tohoi, Pos Simpor, Sungai Puian, Sungai Jenera, Sungai Wias, Sungai Asap and Meranto.
Among the significant gains by Barisan on Saturday was the Jeram Tekoh polling district, where Barisan won with a 460-vote majority after garnering 1,035 votes against Perikatan’s 575.Barisan nearly doubled its vote count in Jeram Tekoh because last year, the Umno-led coalition only managed to get 547 votes against Perikatan’s 766.
In the Kuala Sungai polling district, Barisan doubled its vote count by garnering 154 ballots against Perikatan’s 105.
Last year, Barisan only managed to get 76 votes against Perikatan’s 110.
Another notable result was the Jerek polling district, where Barisan got 550 votes against Perikatan’s 519.
Last year, Perikatan won the Jerek seat with 541 votes against Barisan’s 333.
In the three Nenggiri polling districts won by Perikatan, its winning majorities were significantly reduced to only two-digit margins.
In the Kesedar Limau Kasturi polling district, Perikatan only managed to win by a 25-vote majority after garnering 217 votes against Barisan’s 192.
In the state elections last year, Perikatan won Kesedar Limau Kasturi with a 120-vote majority after garnering 230 votes against Barisan’s 119.
A similar outcome was seen at the Pasir Tumboh polling district, where Perikatan won with a mere 51-vote majority, garnering 352 ballots against Barisan’s 301. Last year, Perikatan obtained a 141-vote majority after getting 352 votes against Barisan’s 211.
At the Ladang SEDC polling district, Perikatan only won with an 84-vote majority after getting 350 votes against Barisan’s 266.
