Malaysia's demographic dilemma: Challenges loom as fertility drops and population ages


PETALING JAYA: As Malaysia is fast moving from an ageing nation to an aged nation by 2040, the Department of Statistics (DoSM) revealed some pros and cons of the situation.

Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin (pic) said the most concerning part was the fertility rate in Malaysia seeing a dramatic decline from 4.9% in 1970 to only 1.6% in 2022.

He said this was despite the life expectancy at birth in Malaysia increasing by 10.9% (from 61.6mil to 72.5mil) for males and 11.8% (from 65.6mil to 77.4mil) for females from 1970 till 2023.

Apart from that, Uzir said as of last year, about 444,900 Malaysians who are still working comprise those between the age of 60 and 64, and this trend is projected to increase where more senior citizens in the future would have to continue working despite being in their golden years.

“According to the United Nations in the publication of the ‘Ageing in the Twenty-First Century (2012)’, population ageing refers to the phenomenon where older individuals become a proportionally larger part of the total population due to low fertility and increased life expectancy.

“The growth of an older population refers to a population aged 65 and above which is currently one of the most significant demographic trends worldwide,” he said when launching the DoSM’s MyAgeing Dashboard through an online press conference on Friday (Sept 6).

The MyAgeing Dashboard, according to Uzir, will provide all important information regarding Malaysia’s shift toward an aged nation which will include data involving Malaysia and other selected countries, as well as discussions regarding the issue among the public and in the media.

The low fertility rate which resulted in Malaysia seeing a higher rate of senior citizens, according to Uzir, is caused by higher learning and late marriage.

The gross birth rate has decreased from 32.4% in 1970 to 12.9% per 1,000 people in 2022, he said, adding that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined from 4.9% babies per woman in 1970 to 1.6% in 2022, which is below the replacement level of 2.1%.

“This is associated with higher education levels and late marriage. Late marriage causes less number of children born per family.

“With better education and employment opportunities, the percentage of unmarried people increases, a common phenomenon in modern and industrialised countries.

“Late marriage causes the average age of mothers at first live birth to increase from 26.6 years in 2001 to 27.9 years in 2022,” he added.

Apart from that, the increase in life expectancy at birth is another reason why Malaysia is fast becoming an aged nation.

“Life expectancy at birth has increased from the age of 61.6 years in 1970 to 74.8 years in 2023.

“(Previous studies) showed that the increase in life expectancy in the last 200 years was due to the control of infectious diseases, abundant and safer food, better sanitary conditions, and other non-medical social improvements.

“Decreased tobacco use (for men only) and cardiovascular disease mortality (for men and women) is the main factor contributing to increased life expectancy.

“In high-income countries, avoidable male deaths have declined since 1980 due to declines in avoidable cardiovascular deaths.”

Moving forward, Uzir said the country must shift its focus on several areas to ensure stable population growth in the country.

This, he said, includes developing the elderly population by maintaining functional capacity that also enables their general well-being.

Additionally, he said the country must prioritise the elderly population to ensure they will continue to live a healthy and fulfilling life while sustainably growing the country to greater heights.

“There needs to be short-term and long-term population policies on the elderly - consideration of population dynamics in terms of size, distribution and location.

“The development programme must focus on monitoring the specific needs of the elderly, especially for citizens aged 60 and over,” Uzir added.

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