A voter casting their ballot into the voting box at SMK Tun Syed Sheh Barakbah polling station. —CHAN BOON KAI/The Star
PETALING JAYA: Two years after the 15th General Election (GE15), the marriage of former rivals, Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan, continues to be put under the microscope.
As the alliance enters its third year, The Star looks back at and compares the results of GE15 that took place on Nov 19, 2022, with those of the six state elections (SE15) held on Aug 12, 2023, as well as by-elections that followed both events, to find out the impact of the grouping's cooperation.
In conjunction with the second anniversary of GE15 today, The Star is presenting the outcome of its study over the past eight months when it reviewed the figures culled from more than 7,000 polling districts in parliamentary and state constituencies across the country to determine the voting trends in the national polls and subsequent state elections.
This also allowed the publication to detect the trends that were evident in the past two polls and project how the votes could swing and tides change in the upcoming elections.
At stake is the Malay electorate, the largest voting bloc in the country that is critical for victory by all of the major coalitions contesting in Peninsular Malaysia.
What The Star’s analysis found is that despite the camaraderie between almost all of their top senior leaders, a comparison of voting trends between GE15 and SE15 among Barisan supporters shows that the rank and file are still lukewarm towards the partnership.
But if Barisan and Pakatan leaders are able to convince their supporters to truly work together and vote for each other, the two could capture 35 seats from Opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional in GE16 in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah.
Based on GE15 voting trends, should Barisan and Pakatan pool all the support they received, they could win 146 parliamentary seats in GE16 – two short of a super-majority in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat.
The two coalitions would be able to capture those 35 seats without having to steal any votes from Perikatan supporters.
Pakatan currently holds 81 parliamentary seats nationwide, Barisan has 30, while Perikatan controls 74.
The biggest obstacle to this scenario is the reluctance of some Barisan supporters to vote for Pakatan despite the two coalitions being in a partnership that forms the backbone of the ruling Madani unity government.
The Star’s analysis found that many Barisan supporters, especially from its lynchpin party Umno, had voted for Perikatan in SE15 by a rate of between 71.3% and 100%.
Umno supreme council member Datuk Lokman Noor Adam admitted that the Barisan to Perikatan vote swing had occurred in the state polls as he said the alliance was new at the time.
“We want the cooperation to continue (into GE16), even though we face challenges. There is a splinter group within Umno that wants to return to work with Perikatan.
“But the noise that they are making inside the party is decreasing. They are starting to feel disappointed because their efforts are going to waste. So this is a good sign,” he said.
In The Star’s analysis, a combined Barisan-Pakatan onslaught would wipe out almost all of Perikatan’s parliamentary gains in Sabah, Johor, Melaka, the Federal Territories, Selangor, Pahang, Perak and Penang.
Perikatan would lose its only federal seat in Sabah (Beluran), two seats in Johor (Mersing and Pagoh), two seats in the Federal Terriorities (Putrajaya and Labuan), three seats in Melaka (Masjid Tanah, Tangga Batu and Jasin), and three seats in Penang (Kepala Batas, Tasek Gelugor and Permatang Pauh).
Full Barisan-Pakatan cooperation would also net it six parliamentary seats in Selangor, and seven in both Pahang and Perak, from Perikatan.
In such a scenario, Perikatan would only be left with 39 parliamentary seats spread across Perak, Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Perak, though it would be able to keep its sole seat in Sarawak, Saratok.
This is because the votes that Perikatan gained in these 39 seats outnumber the ballots that both Pakatan and Barisan received in GE15.
