Voters standing in a queue, waiting for their turn to cast their ballots at SK Seri Penanti. ( August 12, 2023 ) — LIM BENG TATT/The Star
PETALING JAYA: The unity government stands to lose between 13 and 26 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia should the pact fail to deal with the lingering distrust Barisan Nasional supporters feel towards Pakatan Harapan.
This distrust among Barisan supporters was reflected in their voting trend during the state election in 2023 (SE15), as well as the Kuala Kubu Bharu (Selangor) and Sungai Bakap (Penang) by-elections in which the alliance worked together.
The Star's analysis found that should this voting trend continue at the parliamentary level during the 16th General Election (GE16), due in three years, Pakatan could lose up to 26 parliamentary seats because of Barisan supporters backing rival Perikatan Nasional.
Through its calculations of this voting trend, The Star found that the rate of transferability between Barisan voters to Perikatan was between 71.3% and 100% of all Barisan supporters.
At a rate of 71.3%, Pakatan could lose 13 parliamentary seats, including PKR-held ones such as Tambun and Tanjung Malim (Perak) and Sungai Petani (Kedah), as well as constituencies belonging to DAP (Bentong and Raub in Pahang) and Amanah (Kuala Selangor and Alor Gajah in Melaka).
At 100% of Barisan supporters' swing to Perikatan, Pakatan would lose the above constituencies and even seats such as Lembah Pantai and Setiawangsa (Federal Territories) and Johor Baru, which are considered safe because of the high population of non-Malay voters.
The losses were only calculated for peninsular states as Pakatan and Barisan face different Opposition parties in Sabah and Sarawak.
Pakatan currently holds 70 parliamentary seats, Barisan has 23, while Perikatan controls 72 in Peninsular Malaysia. Nationally, it's 81-30-74.
Umno supreme council member Datuk Lokman Noor Adam acknowledged this problem and said Barisan's top leaders are working hard to convince the coalition's supporters to change their minds about Pakatan, its one-time bitter rival.
“In the last two years since GE15, Umno voters have started to change their perception of parties like (Pakatan component member) DAP, even though Perikatan is still working hard to maintain the stigma," he said.
One Umno official, who requested anonymity, said top leaders have regularly been holding closed-door sessions to explain to the grassroots why working with Pakatan is better than with Perikatan.
"We explain to them that in GE16, it would be easier to negotiate to contest more seats with Pakatan than with Perikatan because being a Malay-based party, the majority of seats Umno wants are currently being held by Perikatan, not Pakatan.
"But if we work with Perikatan, it would be very hard to negotiate for seats as we would be fighting with PAS and Bersatu for their seats," said the official, referring to Perikatan's two Malay-based parties.
Lokman is cautiously optimistic that between now and GE16, Barisan leaders would be able to convince enough of the coalition’s supporters to vote for Pakatan.
“Barisan supporters can judge for themselves that before Umno worked with DAP, (Perikatan parties) PAS and Bersatu had also worked with DAP. So why can't we work with DAP?
“The stigma against DAP is reducing day by day because they are slowly becoming aware that Pakatan and Barisan are in an alliance because of the results of GE15, where no one had enough seats to form a government of its own," he said.
Tomorrow: Dissecting the non-Malay votes
