PETALING JAYA: It is a given that almost all non-Malay voters will continue to support the unity government. Data from the 15th General Election (GE15), the 2023 state elections (SE15) and several by-elections prove as much.
However, data from the Sungai Bakap and Mahkota by-elections reveal that despite this secure vote bank, support cannot be taken for granted.
Unity government political parties best be careful with their words because although non-Malays, especially the Chinese, are unlikely to vote for the Perikatan Nasional coalition, they can choose to do something equally damaging – stay at home during polling day.
In The Star’s analysis of GE15 and SE15 data, it is projected that Pakatan Harapan, which is part of the unity government alliance, could lose up to seven parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia to Perikatan Nasional if turnout drops among non-Malay voters.
Using voting trends in GE15 and estimates by political scientist Dr Bridget Welsh, The Star projected the impact on parliamentary seats if non-Malay voters dropped by 10, 20 and 30 percentage points.
In a series of articles on her blog, Welsh’s analysis of GE15 voting trends found that the average turnout rate of eligible non-Malay voters was between 69% and 73%.
When it came to their voting preferences, non-Malays chose Pakatan by a rate of between 81% and 95%, wrote Welsh, of the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute-Malaysia.
Based on these figures and voter demographics from election data site undi.info, The Star calculated the loss of Pakatan parliamentary seats where non-Malay voters make up to 40% of voters.
The projections are based on two scenario where the voter turnout rate drops from 69% to 39%, and from 73% to 43%.
The analysis discounts Sabah and Sarawak seats because aside from the lone seat of Beluran, Perikatan has very little influence in East Malaysia.
Given the high support of non-Malay voters towards Pakatan, low turnouts in plural constituencies have led to the coalition’s defeat.
According to Welsh’s analysis of GE15 trends, a lower turnout of non-Malay voters in Parit Buntar, Kuantan and Lumut contributed to the defeats of incumbent Pakatan candidates in those seats.
Meanwhile, an analysis by think-tank Institut Darul Ehsan found that a lower turnout of non-Malay voters had cost Pakatan to lose the Sungai Bakap by-election.
In the Sungai Bakap state by-election in July 2024, only 58% and 47% of Indian and Chinese voters respectively turned out to cast their ballots, which contributed to Pakatan’s loss.
In Institut Darul Ehsan’s analysis of Pakatan’s chances, the ruling coalition would have needed a turnout rate of 62% and 60% among Chinese and Indian voters respectively to capture the seat from Perikatan.
In The Star’s analysis of GE15 results, should non-Malay voter turnout slip below an average of 69% to 29% and 73% to 43%, Pakatan would lose at least seven seats.
These are Balik Pulau, Sungai Petani, Tambun, Sekijang, Tanjung Malim, Sri Gading and Raub.
On paper, Pakatan could attempt to arrest the vote loss from lower non-Malay support by supplementing from its ally Barisan Nasional.
But as The Star’s analysis yesterday showed, voting trends in SE15 revealed that Barisan voters tend to vote for Perikatan or also stay at home when the candidate is from Pakatan.
Political scientist Prof Dr Wong Chin Huat argues that Pakatan cannot take for granted their non-Malay vote bank and the support from liberals in their quest to gain more support from Malay conservatives.
“While such a balancing act to please both the Malay/nationalist and non-Malay/liberal constituencies is no easy job for any political leader, the Prime Minister’s deliberate sidelining of non-Malays/liberals is only counterproductive,” said Wong of Sunway University.
“Ironically for Anwar, his over-pandering towards the Malay/nationalist constituency is not profitable. He loses more non-Malay votes than the Malay votes he could possibly win over.”
Tomorrow: Dissecting the youth votes
