WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Satellite images shows major expansions at five complexes where Russia has made solid-fuel missile engines, indicating the Kremlin plans to significantly boost missile production as it pursues its war in Ukraine, according to a European researcher.
Fabian Hinz, a Berlin-based researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a global security think tank, identified the complexes using Russia media reports and declassified Cold War-era CIA documents that listed facilities where the Soviet Union produced solid-fuel missile engines.
The sites are in the Altai Republic in Siberia, Rostov in southern Russia, outside Moscow and St. Petersburg, and in Perm, in western Russia.
Satellite photos taken by Maxar Technologies in July, September and October, reviewed by Reuters, show cleared vegetation and extensive new construction next to buildings that Hinz identified as solid-fuel research and production facilities at the five complexes. Following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered increased funding to expand defense production.
"Satellite imagery suggests that solid-propellant rocket motor-production capacity appears to be one focus of this effort," Hinz wrote in his report, which was published in Military Balance Plus, an IISS blog.
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment. Putin's government plans to hike spending on national defense next year to 6.3 percent of gross domestic product, the highest level since the Cold War.
An NSC spokesperson declined to confirm whether the United States was aware of the expansions but said that the U.S. would be applying additional sanctions on Russian entities and financial institutions to curb its ability to produce defense material.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Hinz's findings come as Russia has been forced to turn to North Korea and Iran, U.S. officials say, to refill missile stocks depleted by the nearly three-year conflict.
Moscow's forces have fired more than 9,600 missiles since the beginning of the war, Ukraine's top general said in August.
Expanding solid-fuel missile motor production could help the Kremlin to meet the demands of the war without having to count on outside suppliers like North Korea, whose missiles have frequently malfunctioned, according to Ukrainian officials.
Solid propellants comprise a mixture of fuel, such as aluminium powder, and oxidizers, most commonly ammonium perchlorate, and a hard rubbery binder that is "cast" in a rocket motor.
Solid-fuel missiles are often easier and safer to operate, especially on the battlefield, than liquid-fuel weapons. They are also ready to launch, cheaper, store longer, and require less logistical support.
ENGINES FOR SOLID-FUEL MISSILES
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based defense analyst, agreed after reviewing the photos that the expansions indicated that Russia plans to boost solid-fuel missile production for weaponry it needs for Ukraine, such as ground-to-ground rockets. Podvig, an expert on Russia's military, said he was aware that several of these sites have been used to manufacture solid fuel engines.
"You produce the propellant, you have to use it somehow. That does suggest the production of missiles will increase," he said, adding that he saw no alternative explanation for the expansions.
Podvig said he does not believe Russia is planning to boost the manufacturing of solid-fuel missiles for its strategic nuclear forces as their production rates are "pretty established."
A senior Russian diplomat in May, however, said that Russia would have to boost its entire missile arsenal as Moscow is in an open confrontation with the United States and its allies.
Hinz noted that the satellite photos provide no clues as to the kinds of solid-fuel missile engines whose production Russia may be planning to boost.
Russia manufactures an extensive range of solid-fuel missiles, including Grads and Uragans fired by mobile launchers, anti-tank rockets, advanced S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles, and Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles.
Moscow's nuclear arsenal also includes solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles, such as the road-mobile Topol-M and the submarine-launched Bulava. Their deployments are restricted until New START, the last remaining U.S.-Russia arms control pact, expires in February 2026.
Putin has cited U.S. support for Ukraine in rejecting negotiations with Washington on replacing New START, an issue that will confront U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump has said he will bring peace to Ukraine, where Russian forces have been advancing in the east, even before taking office in January.
Hinz told Reuters that any Kremlin plans to boost ballistic missile production could face significant hurdles.
They include how Russia will bypass Western sanctions and export controls to obtain high-tech machine tools and whether it has key raw materials needed for solid fuel, including ammonium perchlorate.
"Whether they have enough domestic sourcing or are getting it elsewhere I'm not entirely sure," he said of the chemical used as an oxidizer.
Russia, he continued, also is wrestling with a shortage of skilled labor because many younger workers left the country after Putin launched his full-scale invasion to avoid being mobilized.
Others have been drafted into the military, he said.
"You basically have a labor shortage across the entire Russian economy," Hinz said.
Unemployment in Russia is at record low levels, aggravated by a military mobilisation in 2022 and the emigration of hundreds of thousands of people since Moscow invaded Ukraine. Several state officials have flagged labour shortages as a key concern for the Russian economy, which has registered robust growth this year, thanks in part to higher military production.
(Reporting by Jonathan Landay; additional reporting by Tom Balmforth in Kyiv, Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow and Alexander Marrow in London; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Flynn)
