People walk past posters depicting Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and Leader of the radical right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) George Simion, a day before the parliamentary election, in Bucharest, Romania, November 30, 2024. REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis
BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romanians vote in a parliamentary election on Sunday in which the far right is expected to gain from uncertainty over whether the shock result in a presidential election will stand.
Days after far-right politician Calin Georgescu won most votes in the presidential election first round, an opinion poll this week showed the hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) had a narrow lead over the governing Social Democrats.
Gains by far-right groupings in Sunday's parliamentary vote after a campaign dominated by voters' concerns over budget problems and the cost of living could upend Romania's pro-Western orientation and undermine support for Ukraine, political analysts said.
"People who have serenely voted for Georgescu do not realise we are essentially talking about a total trajectory shift," political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu said.
Romania is a member of the European Union and NATO.
Georgescu's unexpected success last Sunday aroused suspicions of interference in the campaign, prompted a vote recount and led to a defeated candidate asking the country's top court to rerun the first round of voting.
The confusion means the parliamentary election is going ahead with voters uncertain whether the outcome of the presidential first round vote will stand.
They also do not know whether the presidential run-off - scheduled for Dec. 8 between Georgescu and centrist Elena Lasconi - will go ahead or be held at a later date.
The Constitutional Court considered the situation on Friday but decided to put off until Monday a decision on whether to annul the first round.
Georgescu ran as an independent challenging entrenched mainstream parties, but political analysts say far-right parties are likely to gain from the uncertainty.
"The net beneficiaries ... are Georgescu and the anti-establishment camp which is now getting additional ammunition: here is how state institutions work, how discretionary they are," said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University.
An AtlasIntel opinion poll conducted from Nov. 26-28 put the hard-right AUR on 22.4%, with Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu's Social Democrats on 21.4%, down 10 percentage points over two weeks and Lasconi's Save Romania Union at 17.5%. The poll did not factor in the recount.
BUDGET, JOBS AND INVESTMENT
Georgescu, 62, has been critical of NATO and Romania's stance on Ukraine, and has said Bucharest should engage, not challenge Russia. Opinion polls had not predicted his success.
AUR has 8.5% of seats in the current legislature, and two far-right splinter parties could also enter parliament.
Ciolacu ranked third in the presidential election first round, reflecting voters' discontent with his government after campaigning on a promise of stability while the war in Ukraine continues.
The next government will face a tough task in trying to cut a budget deficit that is the highest in the EU at 8% of economic output. It will also face pressure to uphold defence spending goals when Donald Trump's U.S. presidency starts.
Romania has the EU's biggest share of the population at risk of poverty, and swathes of the country need investment.
"We have an unevenly developed country and the biggest frustrations accumulate in these periphery areas which will fall prey to candidates who know how to address them," said anthropologist Bogdan Iancu.
In towns such as Victoria, in the shadow of the Fagaras mountains in the Southern Carpathians, the promise of jobs is vital. In the three decades since a communist-era chemical plant was hugely scaled back, the city's population halved to 6,400 and hundreds of residents endure long commutes to work.
"Firstly, I will vote for factories to come here. So that we have a place to work," said Mihai Coroianu, 52, shovelling snow in the town's main square.
Town mayor Camelia Bertea has secured 31 million euros ($33 million) in EU funds for local projects in three years, including reopening the local hospital, the equivalent of Victoria's budget for 31 years.
The government has also secured investment by German defence group Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder facility near Victoria by 2027, providing hundreds of jobs.
"The future of a small town without financial prospects can only be EU funds," Bertea said.
($1 = 0.9478 euros)
(Reporting by Luiza Ilie; Editing by Justyna Pawlak and Timothy Heritage)
