by Nurul Fitri Ramadhani
JAKARTA, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- Southeast Asia has emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing regions. With a large, youthful population driving digital transformation, abundant natural resources, and a skilled labor force, ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) has positioned itself as a major engine powering the global supply chain and industrial development.
Despite global economic slowdowns and geopolitical uncertainties, Southeast Asian economies have demonstrated remarkable resilience, maintaining strong growth. A key factor in this trajectory is ASEAN's strategic partnership with China, its largest trading partner and a major investor. As bilateral trade reaches a record high and the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative strengthens regional connectivity, Southeast Asia stands poised to enhance its role in the global economy while navigating future challenges.
ASEAN'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A BRIGHT OUTLOOK
ASEAN has emerged as a pillar of economic stability and growth amid a turbulent global landscape.
Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has praised ASEAN's resilience, emphasizing its role as "the most stable regional cooperation" in the Indo-Pacific.
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), economic growth rate for Southeast Asia in 2024 is projected at 4.6 percent, driven by strong domestic demand, consumption and tourism recovery. Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to lead in economic growth. Indonesia alone is forecasted to grow 5 percent this year and in 2025, supported by effective inflation control measures, according to ADB Country Director for Indonesia Jiro Tominaga.
Indonesian marketing expert Hermawan Kartajaya also pointed to ASEAN's investment potential. "ASEAN is a very promising market for the global community. Therefore, countries need to open investment opportunities, especially in developing human resources and technology," he said.
CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR ASEAN: NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
Despite its impressive achievements, ASEAN faces serious challenges from geopolitical conflicts, shifting political leadership, and rising protectionist policies worldwide.
Rahadian Zulfadin, a policy analyst from the Fiscal Policy Agency at Indonesia's Ministry of Finance, warned that 2024 saw three major challenges. "First, geopolitical conflicts. Second, changes in political leadership in many countries. Third, the global economy and major economies are still weak," he said.
The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with the change of government in Syria, have heightened global instability. "We are in a globally uncertain situation," Zulfadin said, noting that these issues could disrupt global supply chains and trade flows.
Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, cited U.S. protectionist measures as a significant risk. "The sharp but short-lived market adjustments we witnessed in early August is a reminder of the risk of further spikes in financial market volatility. The potential escalation of protectionist policies following the U.S. presidential elections is another key risk for the region," he said.
Arianto Patunru, board chairman of the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, said that the trend of protectionism was strengthening amid global dynamics, showing signs of deglobalization. He warned that protectionist measures could destabilize global supply chains, posing risks to ASEAN's export-driven economies.
CHINA: AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT PARTNER FOR ASEAN
China continues to be ASEAN's largest trading partner, reflecting deepening economic ties.
ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn has emphasized the importance of strengthening supply chain connectivity between ASEAN and China to sustain economic resilience.
Kao also highlighted the role of infrastructure in facilitating trade and mobility, hailing the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway and the Laos-China railway as examples of successful joint sustainable infrastructure projects.
"I see immense opportunities for China to collaborate with ASEAN and its member states in meeting infrastructure needs. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China can support the ASEAN Infrastructure Pipeline and leverage its expertise and resources in infrastructure development," he added.
Cambodia's export performance underscored the positive impact of ASEAN-China cooperation. In the first 11 months of 2024, Cambodia's exports reached 23.93 billion U.S. dollars, up 16.8 percent year-on-year. Major exports included garments, footwear, bicycles, car tires and agricultural products, with China being one of Cambodia's top export destinations.
